China Carefully Navigating Iran's Tighter Hormuz Grip

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Economists say at least 80% of the tolls would be paid by the Persian Gulf states – or as much as $14 billion a year on oil alone.

Second, the strait functions as a security guarantee. By demonstrating its ability to disrupt a critical global energy artery, Iran has raised the cost of any future military action against it. This creates deterrence through economic risk rather than purely military means.

Third, it gives Iran geopolitical leverage, particularly with countries in the Global South. Control over the strait allows Iran to bargain with energy-dependent states, encouraging them to circumvent US sanctions on the regime and deepen economic engagement in exchange for concessions to access the strait.

The US is now trying to neutralize Iran's leverage over the strait. Yet, this“siege of a siege” faces clear structural limitations.

For one, Iran's control over the strait is much easier to maintain than a US blockade in international waters. Even with allied support (which has yet to materialize), the US would struggle to restrict access to the strait for an extended period. Such an effort would be highly costly for the US military and would have significant consequences for the global economy.

In this sense, Hormuz risks becoming America's Suez moment - a strategic chokepoint that reveals the limits of power rather than its reach.

How will China react?

But could China, which buys more than 80% of Iran's oil, play a role in pressuring Iran to relax its control over the strait?

It has not done yet, and is unlikely to do. So far, China is blaming the US and rejecting its blockade.

In fact, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun used forceful language this week, calling the blockade“dangerous and irresponsible.”

Although one Chinese tanker has been turned around, others have transited through the new“tollbooth” system in recent days. This is an indication of China's need and willingness to abide by Iran's new rules – at least for the moment.

While China is exposed to the US blockade – about 40% of its oil imports come through the waterway – it has prepared for this moment.

It has diversified its oil imports to avoid being too reliant on any one supplier. And China is believed to have enough petroleum reserves to replace imports via the strait for up to seven months.

Still, it remains to be seen if China would support a toll system in the long term. Despite Beijing's silence so far, some experts believe it would oppose this. China has repeatedly stressed the need to return to“normal passage” through the strait as soon as possible.

China's expanding role in the region

China also stands to benefit from the political shifts that could come after the war.