Dubai Off-Plan Demand Holds Firm As Construction Costs Rise

(MENAFN- Mid-East Info) Smart Bricks, the Dubai-based real estate investment intelligence platform, today published its latest report:“The Forces Shaping the Off-Plan Market Right Now” revealing that Dubai's off-plan market maintained broadly stable deal values in March 2026, even as construction input costs continued to climb across the sector.

Median off-plan transaction value stood at AED 1.73 million in March 2026, versus AED 1.75 million in March 2025, a year-on-year change of less than 1%. Off-plan residential apartment sales reached AED 17.5 billion in March, up from AED 15.5 billion in the same month last year, with transaction volumes rising to 7,983 deals from 7,801. Off-plan's share of total transaction value also increased, from 69.4% in February to 71.8% in March, reinforcing its position as the dominant force in Dubai's property market.

The stability in deal size suggests buyers did not shift toward lower-value assets. Within the off-plan segment, resale activity gained share versus initial sales, pointing to a buyer base that became more selective, not one that stepped away. Demand for projects offering credible developers, payment flexibility, and stronger delivery visibility remained clear.

The report draws attention to a cost dynamic that is building in the background and is expected to intensify. Key construction input costs have already moved significantly from pre-disruption levels, with increases ranging from around 10% to over 120% across major inputs: container freight rates are up roughly 100–120%, aluminium has risen 40–45%, copper 25–30%, steel 15–20%, and cement 10–15%.

These pressures have not yet visibly fed through into transaction values, but developers are absorbing them now. They do not affect all developers equally those with stronger balance sheets, established procurement relationships, and tighter supply chain control are better placed to maintain delivery timelines without passing costs on to buyers. As these pressures build, developer selection is becoming an increasingly critical part of the investment decision.

Projects at 60% or more construction completion carry the strongest delivery visibility, with structural work largely in place and key materials already procured.

“Median transaction values holding broadly steady tells us that investors have not simply moved down the value chain. The market is becoming more selective, but there is still clear demand for projects that offer credible developers, stronger delivery visibility, and disciplined pricing.”

– Mohamed Mohamed, Co-Founder & CEO, Smart Bricks:

The full report, including a breakdown of delivery risk by handover period, developer tier, and location, is available now. Read the Smart Bricks Real Estate Investor's Handbook here.

Smart Bricks' platform monitors more than 1,000 data signals per property, enabling landlords to assess liquidity, income stability, and refinancing risk at a micro-market level rather than relying on citywide averages. Earlier this year, the company announced a $5 million pre-seed round led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z Speedrun), with participation from investors across the US, Europe and the Middle East. Its growth in the UAE has also been supported through its selection for Cohort 9 of the Mohammed Bin Rashid Innovation Fund (MBRIF) Accelerator Programme, which has provided strategic mentorship and access to the wider national innovation ecosystem.

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