Iran War Inflicting Losses That Will Never Be Recovered

Peace research has consistently found that ceasefires without trust-building, third-party enforcement and comprehensive scope are the least likely to survive.

This US-Iran ceasefire lacks all of these elements.

The numbers associated with the war are staggering. The Pentagon has spent roughly US$28 billion in 39 days, with the Trump administration now seeking between $80–100 billion more from Congress to continue.

More than 1,500 Iranians have been killed and 18,500 wounded. Thirteen American soldiers are dead and more than 300 are wounded.

Crude oil prices have surged more than 55 % since the war began. Gas prices across the US have jumped more than a dollar per gallon, and in fragile economies like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal, the energy shock is threatening governments already on the edge.

To what benefit?

There's been no regime change in Iran, no emancipation of the Iranian people from their oppressive rulers, no nuclear disarmament. Instead, the war has produced a cascade of intangible losses that may prove far more consequential.

The Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab nations, once hailed as a diplomatic masterstroke, are under severe strain as Gulf states absorb Iranian missile strikes on American military bases they host and begin asking whether a US military presence is protection or liability.

NATO relationships are in tatters.

Israel, which clearly doesn't want the ceasefire to extend to Lebanon, launched Operation Eternal Darkness with 100 airstrikes in 10 minutes against the Lebanese on the very day the ceasefire was announced.

The US is struggling to define victory in a war it started without clear objectives.

Perhaps the most telling sign of how badly the war has gone for the US is the revolt from within Trump's MAGA camp. Tucker Carlson, once Trump's most powerful media ally, delivered a 43-minute monologue calling the president's war rhetoric“morally corrupt” and“evil.”

He labelled Trump's Easter morning Truth Social post, which mocked Islam while threatening to wipe out Iranian civilization,“vile on every level.” Joe Rogan called the war “insane, based on what he ran on.” The architects of MAGA's media empire are in open revolt, and Trump's approval rating is now positive in just 17 of 50 states.

As a peace scholar, this is one of the most disheartening moments I have ever witnessed. The very architecture of peace is being dismantled - not by accident, but by design.

The US has eliminated its entire $1.23 billion contribution to United Nations peacekeeping in its 2026 budget, slashed 85% of its diplomatic and international affairs spending, shuttered USAID after 64 years and withdrawn from 66 international bodies since January 2025.

The UN has been forced to cut 25% of its peacekeeping forces, meaning a lesser presence in places like Lebanon, Congo and South Sudan precisely when the world needs them most.

The war has also exposed an inversion of the global security order. When it came time to broker peace, no Western US ally stepped forward.

Instead, Pakistan - a country embroiled in its own border tensions with India and Afghanistan - is lead mediator, alongside Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. China has helped from the sidelines.

This foursome of Muslim-majority nations are now positioning themselves as the primary diplomatic channel in a region where both Israel and Iran have become pariahs and American credibility as a security guarantor is in tatters.