Below-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season Likely In 2026 Due To El Niño Here's What First Forecast Predicts

(MENAFN- Live Mint) Weather forecasters from Colorado State University on Thursday (local time) said the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to fall below historical averages due to an El Niño formation sending winds across the southern US that could rip apart tropical storms, Reuters reported.

In a statement, the university said,“While the intensity of the likely ​El Niño is uncertain, the CSU team anticipates ​that a moderate to strong El Niño is ⁠most likely by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane ​season from August–October.”

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The Atlantic hurricane season commences from 1 June and lasts typically till 30 November, with the peak of the season being witnessed between August and October.

13 tropical storms expected

The closely watched Colorado State forecast predicts that in 2026, there will be 13 named tropical storms, including six hurricanes, two of which are expected to become major hurricanes with wind speeds exceeding 111 mph (179 kph).

By comparison, the average hurricane season from 1991 to 2020 produced 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Storm development may be limited by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, warmer-than-normal waters in the western tropical Atlantic could support storm formation.

In 2025, there were 13 named storms and five hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane status. That season caused more than $9 billion in damage and resulted in 126 deaths.

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According to CBS News, the weather forecasters' team acknowledged that their April forecast is preliminary and will be updated once the hurricane season is underway. Even so, the early prediction is closely watched each year by officials and residents in hurricane-prone regions, particularly Florida and states along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard, as they prepare for the potential impacts ahead.

Delián Colón-Burgos, who co-authored the forecast, said, "We always recommend coastal residents to prepare the same way for every season," and added, "Putting this out there in April gets people thinking about what's coming in the next couple of months."

Hurricane activity to dip about 75% of long-term seasonal average

Hurricane activity in 2026 is expected to see a 75% dip from the long-term seasonal average, the forecast predicts. If accurate, this would represent a slight decrease from last year's hurricane season, which saw 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, though none made direct landfall in the country. By comparison, federal data indicate that an average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Shift in atmospheric conditions likely

The main reason behind the below-average hurricane forecast of the researchers is an expected shift in atmospheric conditions that can either encourage or suppress storm development, according to Colón-Burgos.

The important factor is the expected arrival of El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, this summer. This climate pattern, marked by changes in sea surface temperatures and rainfall in the Pacific Ocean, influences weather across the United States and often signals how active a hurricane season may be.

During El Niño, Atlantic hurricanes are typically less frequent and less intense.

The Climate Prediction Center estimates a 62% chance that El Niño will develop between June and August and persist through at least the end of 2026. Forecasters expect it to be fully established and possibly strong during the peak of this year's hurricane season.

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