Iran Says Allies Will Close Bab El-Mandeb Strait If Situation Gets Out Of Control: Can It Become The Next Hormuz?

(MENAFN- Live Mint) Hours after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC ) threatened to target the US and its partners' infrastructure, a senior Iranian source told Reuters on Tuesday (local time) that if the situation gets out of control, Tehran's allies will also close the Bab El-Mandeb Strait.

Citing the source, the report added that while the US and Iran continue to exchange messages via Pakistan, Tehran will not show flexibility as long as Washington continues to demand its "surrender under pressure".

According to an Al Jazeera report, if the Bab El-Mandeb were to close, the consequences would extend far beyond the current conflict. It could intensify the global energy supply crisis triggered by the war, worsening the economic strain already being felt in factories, households, and fuel stations worldwide.

Also Read | Why Bab el-Mandeb Strait matters and what happens if it's blocked? Here's all you need to know about the Bab El-Mandeb StraitWhat is Bab El-Mandeb?

The Bab El-Mandeb Strait is a crucial waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden for global oil trade. It is a 32-kilometre strait, which serves as the only entry point to the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean, connecting it to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal.

How much of global trade passes through the Strait?

According to Al Jazeera, the Strait is responsible for transporting roughly 12% of global trade daily.

What will happen if the route is disrupted?

When the route is disrupted, the ships are forced to detour around Africa, which adds another 10 to 14 days to delivery schedules.

Also Read | US-Iran war LIVE: Russia, China veto UN resolution on reopening Strait of Hormuz Where is the Bab El-Mandeb?

The Strait lies between Yemen to the northeast and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa to the southwest. At its narrowest, it spans about 29 kilometres, which restricts movement to two shipping lanes for incoming and outgoing vessels, and it is largely under the influence of Iran-backed Houthi forces.

What is the importance of the Bab El-Mandeb Strait?

The strait serves as a vital route through which Saudi Arabia sends its oil to Asia. Even when the Strait of Hormuz was open, the Bab El-Mandeb Strait was a crucial passageway for Gulf states besides Saudi Arabia to export their crude oil, gas, and fuels to Europe, either through the Suez Canal or the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) Pipeline on Egypt's Red Sea coast.

In 2024, roughly 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passed through Bab El-Mandeb, which was five percent of the global total.

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The report suggests that if Bab El-Mandeb is shut along with the Strait of Hormuz, which has been shut since March after the war broke out in late February, this would block 25% or a quarter of the world's oil and gas supply. Apart from oil, roughly 10% of global trade sails via the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, including container shipments from China, India, and other Asian nations to Europe.

With the Strait of Hormuz being shut, the significance of the Bab El-Mandeb Strait has only grown.

Can Iran block the Bab El-Mandeb Strait?

Although Iran does not share a coastline with the Bab al-Mandeb, Yemen does, and Tehran maintains close ties with the Houthis there. The group carried out dozens of attacks on vessels linked to Israel in the Red Sea during 2023 and 2024 in response to the Gaza war.

A complete naval blockade would not be necessary to disrupt the strait. Even limited actions, such as a handful of anti-ship missile launches, drone strikes, or the placement of a few naval mines, could render the narrow shipping lanes too dangerous for commercial traffic, prompting vessels to avoid the route. In such restricted waters, the threat of attack alone can be enough to deter passage.

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