Brazil's Financial Morning Call For Thursday, April 2, 2026

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) TODAY'S FOCUS Trump's Speech Wasn't the Off-Ramp: "Extremely Hard" Hits Promised, Oil Surges After Hours

Today's Brazil morning call opens on a dramatically different tone than Wednesday's close suggested. This is part of The Rio Times' daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Wall Street closed higher for a second straight day - S&P 500 +0.72% to 6,575, Nasdaq +1.16% - on continued de-escalation hopes. But Trump's 9 PM address to the nation shattered the narrative. He declared U.S. objectives "nearing completion" but promised "extremely hard" hits over the next two to three weeks, vowing to bring Iran "back to the Stone Ages." Oil surged over 5% after hours. Asia reversed hard overnight: Nikkei −1.4%, Kospi −2.82%. The Ibovespa closed at 187,953 (+0.26%) before the speech - Thursday's session will price in the hawkish turn.

Thursday is a half-session across LatAm: Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, and Costa Rica are closed for Maundy Thursday. Brazil's B3 is open. Key data: U.S. initial jobless claims (08:30 ET), trade balance (08:30 ET), Challenger job cuts (07:30 ET). Fed's Logan and Bowman speak. Good Friday tomorrow closes all markets. NFP publishes into the closure - Monday's open prices everything.

Three Things That Matter

Wednesday	S&P 500 +0.72% to 6,575. Nasdaq +1.16% to 21,841. Dow +0.48% to 46,566. ADP 62K (beat 40K cons). ISM Mfg PMI expanded but Prices Paid surged to 78.3 - highest since June 2022. WTI fell to ~$99 intraday before the speech. Nike −14.3% (weak outlook). SpaceX confidentially filed for IPO. Energy sector −3.7%. Ibovespa +0.26% to 187,953. Gold −3.30% to $4,601. Silver −5.71% to $70.77. Bitcoin −2.36% to $66,496. USD/BRL held R$5.15 - strongest since Feb. Trump on Truth Social: Iran's president "asked for ceasefire." Iran denied it. Iran's IRGC threatened 18 U.S. tech companies including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft
Trump Speech	9 PM ET address: "Core strategic objectives nearing completion." Promised "extremely hard" strikes over next 2–3 weeks, vowed to bring Iran "back to the Stone Ages." No ceasefire announced. No withdrawal timeline. Told allies to open Hormuz themselves. Oil surged 5%+ after hours. Asia reversed: Nikkei −1.4%, Kospi −2.82%, Hang Seng −0.5%. Iran struck fuel tanker in Qatar waters. Houthis fired third barrage at Israel. 13 U.S. service members killed, 348 wounded since Feb 28. Third carrier (USS George H.W. Bush) deploying. 82nd Airborne arriving in region
Today	LatAm holidays: Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, Costa Rica closed (Maundy Thursday). Brazil B3 OPEN. Challenger Job Cuts (07:30 ET). Initial Jobless Claims (08:30 ET, cons: 212K). Trade Balance (08:30 ET, cons: −$60.5B). BRL Industrial Production (08:00 BRT, cons: +0.7% MoM). IPC-Fipe (05:00 BRT). Fed's Logan (11:00), Bowman (12:45). Good Friday tomorrow - all markets closed. NFP Friday (data publishes, markets closed). War Day 34

Where We Left Off WEDNESDAY, APR 1 - B3 CLOSE

The Ibovespa opened at 187,463 and ground higher to 189,131 intraday before settling at 187,952.91 (+0.26%). The session was a consolidation day after Tuesday's 2.7% surge. Banks and industrials held gains while energy names faced pressure from falling oil. Vale was stable and WEG continued its post-battery-factory rally. The USD/BRL fell to R$5.15 - the strongest real since February - as the carry trade attracted fresh inflows on de-escalation optimism.

Wall Street extended its winning streak to two days. The S&P 500 rose 0.72% to 6,575.32 with industrials (+1.9%) and communication services (+1.8%) leading. The Nasdaq gained 1.16% to 21,841 as semis recovered - Micron +8.96%, Intel +8.78%. Energy was the sole major laggard at −3.7% as WTI fell below $100 intraday for the first time in a week. Nike plunged 14.3% on weak forward guidance, its worst day in a year. SpaceX confidentially filed for IPO.

The data painted a mixed picture. ADP private payrolls came in at 62K - beating the 40K consensus but still showing narrow hiring concentrated in healthcare (+58K) and construction (+30K). Manufacturing lost 11K jobs. ISM Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion but the Prices Paid component surged to 78.3 - the highest since June 2022 - with 17 of 18 industries reporting higher costs. As ISM's Spence warned, "the demand indicators are going in the wrong direction." The stagflation signal is sharpening: expanding output + collapsing hiring + surging prices.

Then came Trump's 9 PM address. The market expected a de-escalation announcement. Instead, Trump declared objectives "nearing completion" but promised "extremely hard" strikes over the next two to three weeks, threatening to bring Iran "back to the Stone Ages." No ceasefire. No withdrawal date. He told allies to open Hormuz themselves. Oil surged over 5% after hours. Asia reversed hard: Nikkei −1.4%, Kospi −2.82%. As covered in yesterday's Morning Call, the binary risk was clearly flagged - and the bear case materialized. Iran struck a fuel tanker in Qatar's territorial waters, and the IRGC threatened 18 U.S. tech companies including Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft.

Market Snapshot DATA AS OF WED, APR 1 CLOSE (PRE-SPEECH)

Indicator	Close	Change
Ibovespa	187,953	+0.26%
USD/BRL	R$5.15	−1.7% (BRL ↑)
S&P 500	6,575	+0.72%
Nasdaq	21,841	+1.16%
10Y Treasury	~4.33%	+1.4 bps
Gold (Spot)	$4,601	−3.30%
WTI Crude	~$99-101	−2.5% (pre-speech)
WTI (After Hours)	~$105+	+5%+ (post-speech)
VIX	~24.5	−3.0%
Silver	$70.77	−5.71%

What to Watch THURSDAY CATALYSTS

The post-speech repricing is the dominant force. Oil surged 5%+ after hours and Asia reversed hard - Nikkei −1.4%, Kospi −2.82%, Hang Seng −0.5%. S&P 500 futures will price in the hawkish turn at the open. The two-day relief rally is at risk of a full reversal. Energy stocks will rip higher; tech - especially the 18 companies threatened by Iran's IRGC - faces direct risk.

Initial jobless claims at 08:30 ET (cons: 212K) and trade balance (cons: −$60.5B) are the data, but they'll be secondary to geopolitical pricing. Challenger job cuts at 07:30 ET round out the employment picture ahead of Friday's NFP. Brazil's industrial production at 08:00 BRT (cons: +0.7% MoM / −1.0% YoY) and IPC-Fipe inflation index are the domestic reads. Fed's Logan (11:00) and Bowman (12:45) speak - their tone on ISM's price surge (78.3) matters.

Most of LatAm is closed for Maundy Thursday - Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, Costa Rica. Brazil's B3 is open but will trade in thin regional liquidity. Good Friday tomorrow shuts everything. NFP publishes Friday at 08:30 ET into a closed market - Monday's open will be the most information-dense session of the quarter, pricing in NFP + the full Easter weekend of Iran developments.

Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS

The Ibovespa closed at 187,952.91 (+0.26%), consolidating Tuesday's breakout. RSI at 59.32 (MA: 49.54) - firmly bullish but approaching the 60 threshold that has capped previous rallies. The MACD histogram jumped to 774.21 (MACD: 641.54, signal: 132.66) - strong and widening bullish crossover. The index touched 189,131 intraday, its highest level since the war began, before pulling back.

Resistance: 187,953 (Wednesday close) → 187,476 (upper Bollinger vicinity) → 189,131 (intraday high / new cycle high) → 183,831 (prior swing, now support).

Support: 183,831 (prior swing) → 183,145 / 182,958 (SMA cluster) → 182,085 (20-day) → 181,680 (mid-range) → 178,099 (lower range) → 175,884 (lower Bollinger) → 155,633 (200-day).

Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · NEXT MEETING: APR 28-29

Trump's speech is a setback for the May cut case. The "extremely hard" hits promise means oil stays elevated for at least two to three more weeks - and potentially longer if the war escalates further. The ISM Prices Paid at 78.3 reinforces the global cost-push inflation narrative. If WTI re-establishes above $105 on Thursday, the BCB faces a harder decision at the April 28 meeting.

However, Brazil's domestic picture remains relatively favorable. USD/BRL at R$5.15 - the strongest since February - means imported inflation pressure is easing even as oil rises. The PPI at −4.5% annual and the IPCA-15 at 3.74% provide cover. Today's industrial production data (cons: +0.7% MoM) and IPC-Fipe inflation will add to the picture. The cut is not dead, but the probability has shifted from "likely" to "conditional on oil trajectory."

Economic Calendar THURSDAY, APR 2

Time	Event	Impact
All Day	LatAm holidays: Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, Costa Rica closed (Maundy Thursday). Brazil B3 OPEN in thin regional liquidity	NOTE
05:00-08:00 BRT	IPC-Fipe Inflation (Mar, prev: 0.25%). BRL Industrial Production (08:00 BRT, cons: +0.7% MoM / −1.0% YoY). ECB Economic Bulletin (04:00 ET). Italian Retail Sales (05:00 ET). Domestic data wall	MEDIUM
07:30-08:30 ET	Challenger Job Cuts (07:30 ET). Initial Jobless Claims (08:30, cons: 212K). Trade Balance (08:30, cons: −$60.5B). Employment picture ahead of Friday's NFP	HIGH
11:00-12:45 ET	Fed's Logan (11:00). Fed's Bowman (12:45). Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 (11:30, prev: 1.9%). Baker Hughes Rig Count (13:00). Tone on ISM prices and post-speech oil surge critical	HIGH

Latin America Markets WEDNESDAY CLOSE

Index	Close	Change	RSI (14)	Signal
Ibovespa	187,953	+0.26%	59.32	Bullish
IPC (Mexico)	69,702	+1.59%	58.91	Bullish
COLCAP (Colombia)	2,281	−0.24%	54.15	Neutral
IPSA (Chile)	10,856	+2.03%	59.83	Bullish
MERVAL (Argentina)	2,999,342	+0.05%	65.28	Bullish

Chile's IPSA was the LatAm standout on Wednesday, surging 2.03% to 10,856 with RSI at 59.83 - the strongest momentum reading in the region alongside Argentina. Mexico's IPC extended its rally +1.59% to 69,702. Colombia's COLCAP dipped 0.24% to 2,281 as the government's withdrawal from the central bank board continued to weigh on sentiment. Argentina's MERVAL was essentially flat (+0.05%) at 2,999,342, consolidating near the 3 million psychological level. All five indices except Colombia showed bullish RSI readings heading into the holiday weekend. As covered in the latest LATAM Pulse, the regional picture was strong before Trump's speech reset the risk calculus.

Commodities & FX KEY MOVES

Oil is the story. WTI fell as low as $97.56 intraday Wednesday on the ceasefire-hope trade before recovering to ~$99-101 at the close. Then Trump's 9 PM speech - promising "extremely hard" strikes and "back to the Stone Ages" - sent crude surging 5%+ after hours to ~$105+. The two-day de-escalation trade is erased in a single speech. Iran struck a fuel tanker in Qatari waters on Wednesday, and the Houthis fired a third barrage at Israel. The third carrier group (USS George H.W. Bush) is deploying along with 82nd Airborne troops - force posture suggests escalation, not withdrawal.

Gold crashed 3.30% to $4,601 - giving back nearly all of Tuesday's gains. The move appears driven by profit-taking and a shift back into the dollar as the de-escalation narrative collapsed. Gold's RSI fell to 43.11 (MA: 37.79) - recovery momentum has stalled. Silver was hammered 5.71% to $70.77, the worst daily performance in weeks, with RSI at 41.58. The precious metals selloff is counterintuitive given the hawkish speech - likely reflects forced selling and margin calls rather than fundamentals.

USD/BRL dropped to R$5.15 - a significant move strengthening the real to its best level since February. RSI at 49.36 (MA: 42.59) shows the pair approaching oversold territory. The real is benefiting from Brazil's carry advantage and the de-escalation hope that had been building. Thursday will test whether the speech reversal weakens the real back toward R$5.25. Bitcoin fell 2.36% to $66,496 with RSI at 45.73 - the IRGC threats against tech companies may be weighing on crypto sentiment alongside the broader risk-off.

Yields ticked up marginally on Wednesday (+1.4 bps to ~4.33%) as the ISM Prices Paid surge to 78.3 reminded bond traders that inflation is not dead. Post-speech, the direction is unclear - safe-haven demand argues for lower yields, but renewed oil inflation argues for higher. The ISM reading is the biggest development for the Fed: 17 of 18 industries reporting higher costs is not transitory. If Logan or Bowman sound hawkish on Thursday, the bond market recalibrates.

Risk Map BULL vs BEAR

Bull Case

Bear Case

Trump's speech is maximum-pressure posturing before a deal - The pattern since Feb 28 has been escalation rhetoric followed by de-escalation. "Back to the Stone Ages" could be negotiating leverage, not operational intent. He explicitly said a deal is still possible. If Pakistan-mediated talks produce a ceasefire over Easter weekend, Monday opens with a massive relief trade. Brazil's fundamentals strengthen regardless - USD/BRL at R$5.15, PPI at −4.5% annual, Ibovespa near 188,000. The 14.75% carry is a magnet. Industrial production data today should show resilience. Even if the war extends, Brazil's structural bid has proven durable. Holiday-shortened week limits the damage - Most of LatAm is closed Thursday. All markets closed Friday. Thin liquidity means Thursday's moves may overstate directional conviction. The real test is Monday.

The speech was not de-escalation - it was a promise of intensified strikes - "Extremely hard," "Stone Ages," a third carrier group, 82nd Airborne deploying. This is the force posture of escalation. Oil at $105+ after hours means gas prices climb further past $4. ISM Prices Paid at 78.3 means inflation is accelerating, not moderating. The IRGC threat against 18 U.S. tech companies is a new attack vector - Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet named. If even one facility is targeted, the Nasdaq's two-day recovery evaporates. This extends the war from physical infrastructure to the corporate sector. The VIX will spike. NFP drops into a closed market on Friday - If jobs are weak (JOLTS already showed 6-year low hires), recession fears combine with inflation fears. Monday opens pricing in escalation + weak jobs + Easter weekend developments - a triple risk event. The two-day rally may have been a trap.

Positioning BOTTOM LINE

The de-escalation trade is over - at least for now. Trump's speech promised more war, not less. Oil surging 5%+ after hours undoes two days of relief. Asia's reversal confirms the repricing. Thursday opens into the post-speech reality: higher oil, renewed inflation pressure, and a war entering its sixth week with no credible end date.

The ISM data is independently concerning. Prices Paid at 78.3 - highest since June 2022 - with 17 of 18 industries reporting higher costs isn't a war footnote. It's a structural shift in the inflation landscape that complicates the rate-cut path for every central bank, including the BCB. The ADP data showed hiring alive (62K beat) but concentrated in two sectors. The employment picture is narrow and fragile.

Brazil trades alone on Thursday. Most of LatAm is closed for Maundy Thursday. B3 will operate in thin liquidity, which can amplify moves in either direction. The Ibovespa's position near 188,000 with RSI at 59 makes it vulnerable to a post-speech pullback - but the USD/BRL at R$5.15 and the carry trade provide a structural floor. Petrobras and energy names may outperform on the oil surge, partially offsetting any broader weakness.

The next 96 hours are the most consequential of the war so far: Thursday's thin session, Friday's NFP into a closed market, the Easter weekend with intensified strikes promised, and Monday's pricing-in of everything at once. Reduce risk heading into the holiday. Cash is a position. The Ibovespa's carry trade is the best structural defense in EM, but it's not a shield against a global re-escalation.

RT Staff Reporters · This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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