From 52.9% To 28.2%: Argentina's Poverty Rate Under Milei In Four Data Points

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Key Points

- Argentina's poverty rate fell to 28.2% in H2 2025, down from 31.6% in H1 and 52.9% at the start of Milei's presidency - the lowest level since 2018

- Roughly 13.1 million Argentines remain below the poverty line, with indigence at 6.3% affecting 2.9 million people

- Child poverty remains acute: 41.3% of children under 14 live in poverty, and analysts warn the improvement may partly reflect survey methodology corrections as inflation decelerates

Argentina poverty fell to 28.2% in the second half of 2025, according to INDEC data published Tuesday - the lowest reading since the first half of 2018 under Mauricio Macri, when poverty stood at 27.3%. Indigence dropped to 6.3%, also the lowest in seven years.

The trajectory under Milei has been dramatic. Poverty spiked to 52.9% in H1 2024 after the initial devaluation shock, then fell to 38.1% in H2 2024, 31.6% in H1 2025, and now 28.2%. In absolute terms, the number of Argentines in poverty dropped from approximately 24.5 million at the peak to 13.1 million - a reduction of 11.4 million people in eighteen months.

What Drove the Decline

Economy Minister Luis Caputo attributed the improvement to economic growth, disinflation, and direct social transfers without intermediaries. Inflation fell to an average of 2.3% monthly during H2 2025, allowing household incomes to begin recovering purchasing power.

Total household income rose 18.3% in the period, while the basic food basket increased 11.9% and the total basic basket 11.3%. For the first time since Milei took office, income growth outpaced the cost of the baskets that define the poverty and indigence thresholds.

However, analysts note an important nuance. The basic food basket actually rose faster than overall inflation during H2 2025 - particularly meat prices at year-end - yet poverty still fell. Economist Gonzalo Carrera told Ámbito that this represents a genuine positive signal: the improvement occurred even as the food basket stopped working in households' favor.

The Measurement Caveat

Not all specialists accept the numbers at face value. Sociologist Daniel Schteingart noted that Argentina 's poverty measurement relies on self-reported income in household surveys, and respondents consistently underreport. In high-inflation environments like 2023, the underreporting was extreme - as inflation decelerates, respondents report more accurately, producing a statistical correction that looks like poverty reduction.

Formal sector wages rose only 28.8% in H2 2025, below the 31.5% inflation rate. Informal wages outpaced inflation at 38.2%, but the formal sector - which employs the majority of the urban workforce - saw real income decline. The poverty improvement may therefore overstate the gains for middle-class households while accurately reflecting improvements among the informal poor.

Regional Disparities and Child Poverty

The national figure masks sharp regional variation. Patagonia recorded the lowest poverty at 25.4%, while the northeast (NEA) registered the highest at 32.7%. Greater Buenos Aires came in at 28.3%, close to the national average.

The most concerning data point is child poverty. Among Argentines under 14, 41.3% remain below the poverty line, and for the 15-29 age group the rate is 32.6%.

Only among those over 65 has poverty fallen to single digits, at 9.7% - reflecting pension indexation that has outpaced other income sources.

What It Means for the Milei Thesis

The poverty data is the strongest social indicator Milei can point to as his economic program enters its third year. A 24.7 percentage point drop from the H1 2024 peak is historically unprecedented in Argentine data. Caputo and Milei both celebrated the release, with the president posting on social media: "Poverty keeps falling. Data, not narrative."

But the same day carried a stark reminder of the social challenges that persist. On Monday, a 15-year-old student opened fire at a school in San Cristóbal, Santa Fe province, killing a 13-year-old classmate and wounding eight others - the deadliest school shooting in Argentina in over two decades. The attacker brought a shotgun concealed in a guitar case and fired during the morning flag ceremony.

For investors tracking the Argentina reform story, the poverty data reinforces the macroeconomic stabilization narrative. But with 13 million still in poverty, 41% of children below the line, and the labor reform frozen by courts, the distance between statistical progress and lived reality remains vast. The question for 2026 is whether the improvement can continue without the tailwind of inflation correction - or whether the structural constraints of Argentina's economy reassert themselves.

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