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Larry Fink Walks Back on Iran War Optimism
(MENAFN) BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is sounding the alarm over the economic fallout of a prolonged U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, cautioning that persistently high oil prices could tip the world into a severe downturn.
In an interview, Fink said crude prices may remain elevated for years if Iran “remains a threat,” with the potential to surge as high as $150 per barrel—levels he warned could ignite “a probably stark and steep recession.” His remarks underscore growing concern that sustained energy shocks could ripple across the global economy.
Fink outlined two sharply divergent paths for the conflict. In one, Iran is “accepted again by the international community,” easing supply constraints and pushing oil prices below pre-war levels. In the other, prolonged geopolitical tensions keep energy costs high, carrying “profound implications” for economic stability worldwide.
The warning marks a notable shift in tone from earlier comments this month. Speaking previously on Fox News, Fink downplayed the likelihood of a drawn-out war and projected that oil prices would “revert back to where it was and maybe even lower” once hostilities subside.
“If the outcome of the war is a neutralized Iran, and they are allowed to be selling oil products into the market again, there’s a great probability that oil is gonna be below $50,” he said. He also urged investors not to retreat from volatile markets, saying he had been advising them to “buy more” and describing the situation as a “good long-term opportunity.”
At the same time, major financial players are already preparing for a post-conflict landscape. Admiral James Stavridis, a former NATO supreme allied commander now with Carlyle, told Semafor that investors are actively identifying reconstruction prospects across affected regions.
Drawing parallels to post-war rebuilding efforts in Asia, he said that “that could be [Iran], that could be Cuba, that could be Venezuela, that could be Ukraine. Those are investment opportunities that ought to be taken very seriously.”
The conflict has already rattled global energy markets. Disruptions to oil and gas flows have tightened supply, driving Brent crude prices as high as $120 per barrel this month and intensifying volatility across financial markets.
In an interview, Fink said crude prices may remain elevated for years if Iran “remains a threat,” with the potential to surge as high as $150 per barrel—levels he warned could ignite “a probably stark and steep recession.” His remarks underscore growing concern that sustained energy shocks could ripple across the global economy.
Fink outlined two sharply divergent paths for the conflict. In one, Iran is “accepted again by the international community,” easing supply constraints and pushing oil prices below pre-war levels. In the other, prolonged geopolitical tensions keep energy costs high, carrying “profound implications” for economic stability worldwide.
The warning marks a notable shift in tone from earlier comments this month. Speaking previously on Fox News, Fink downplayed the likelihood of a drawn-out war and projected that oil prices would “revert back to where it was and maybe even lower” once hostilities subside.
“If the outcome of the war is a neutralized Iran, and they are allowed to be selling oil products into the market again, there’s a great probability that oil is gonna be below $50,” he said. He also urged investors not to retreat from volatile markets, saying he had been advising them to “buy more” and describing the situation as a “good long-term opportunity.”
At the same time, major financial players are already preparing for a post-conflict landscape. Admiral James Stavridis, a former NATO supreme allied commander now with Carlyle, told Semafor that investors are actively identifying reconstruction prospects across affected regions.
Drawing parallels to post-war rebuilding efforts in Asia, he said that “that could be [Iran], that could be Cuba, that could be Venezuela, that could be Ukraine. Those are investment opportunities that ought to be taken very seriously.”
The conflict has already rattled global energy markets. Disruptions to oil and gas flows have tightened supply, driving Brent crude prices as high as $120 per barrel this month and intensifying volatility across financial markets.
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