Politics With Michelle Grattan: Rory Medcalf On Australians' Growing National Security Fears

Australians have become increasingly anxious about national security – even before the outbreak of the recent US-Israel war with Iran, according to a new report.

The Australian National University's National Security College surveyed more than 20,000 Australians in November 2024, July 2025 and February 2026. The surveys took in last December's Bondi terror attack, but predated the current Middle East war.

Non-military threats, such as AI-enabled attacks and disruption to critical supplies, were seen as the most likely threats in the next five years. Fewer than one in five participants felt Australia was“very” or“fully” prepared for any of the 15 security risks in the survey.

Yet a foreign military attack on Australian soil was seen as the most“catastrophic” looming threat. Almost half (45%) of people saw it as a risk within the next five years.

One of the report's key authors and head of the ANU's National Security College, Professor Rory Medcalf, joined us on the podcast.

The report found national security worries had“racheted up with each survey”, from 42% of respondents in November 2024 to 64% by February 2026. Medcalf said that finding was“disturbing”.

While other threats have been getting more attention, Medcalf said Australians remain live to the dangers of climate change and natural disasters.

While the Middle East war broke out only after the final survey, Medcalf said the“Trump factor” was apparent even before then.

The researchers also conducted focus groups and individual interviews. Madcalf said those interviews gave a clear sense the US-Australia alliance“is not what it used to be”.

Despite Australians' increasing anxieties about national security, Medcalf said there remained some“green shoots”.

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