Iran's Insurgent Playbook For Outlasting US-Israel Firepower

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This may seem like a risky strategy, as Iran will need to live with these close neighbours after the war is over. But the regime has a purpose – it wants to spoil the increasingly close relationship between the Gulf states and the US.

For decades, the Gulf countries have been reliant on the US as their ultimate security guarantor. The US exports billions of dollars worth of arms to these countries, and many host US military bases.

By attacking them now, Iran is creating pressure on Gulf leaders to distance themselves from the US.

Across the region, distrust and political antagonism toward the US remains high. Resentment is likely to build further, as economies continue to take a major hit from an American and Israeli military venture.

If Iran succeeds in spoiling the closeness between the US and Gulf countries, this could fundamentally change the security environment in the Middle East and increase its own power in a region where it has few friends.

Light weapons and attack craft

Iran is using light weapons – primarily drones and small attack craft – and nimble fighting tactics to its advantage.

Iran lost the majority of its naval capability in the early days of the war. So, it almost immediately adopted an asymmetric naval warfare strategy to effectively block the Strait of Hormuz.

It is doing this by employing fast-attack boats, naval mines and midget submarines – which are designed specifically to operate in the Gulf's shallow, murky waters – to threaten attacks against large and cumbersome oil tankers.

This insurgency tactic has given Iran control over an important part of the global economy, restricting the flow of oil, critical minerals and liquified natural gas to the rest of the world.

Targeting civilian infrastructure

Lastly, Iran is targeting civilian infrastructure, such as airports, water desalination plants and energy facilities, across the Gulf.

It is now threatening to destroy this infrastructure completely if Trump follows through on his pledge to“obliterate” Iran's power plants.

This is ramping up the pressure on Gulf countries by putting their critical economic and humanitarian assets at risk. It is also driving global economic disruption with the closure of international transport hubs in the UAE and Qatar.

Attacks on non-military targets unsettle the entire population. No one knows what might be hit next. These pressures increase the likelihood that countries in the Gulf and around the world will push for a US withdrawal.

Iran can outlast the US

So, what does Iran's use of insurgent tactics suggest about how this war will end?

Previous wars that involved a strong military power against a much weaker opponent have taught us a lesson.

The weak actor has to survive long enough for political and economic pressure to build on their adversary, compelling them to withdraw. Despite being severely degraded, the weaker actor can then claim victory.

So, the Iranian regime just has to survive longer than the US political will to fight.

To be sure, the regime has been greatly weakened. It could fall in the medium- to long-term. But it is only concerned with the immediate future right now, using these insurgency tactics to outlast the US in the short term.