Merval Index Today Surges 2.61% As Argentina Bucks Selloff

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Rio Times Daily Market Brief. Argentina Wednesday, March 12, 2026 · Covering the session of Tuesday, March 11

Merval index today closed at 2,770,634.71 points, surging 2.61% in a powerful rally that defied the grim global backdrop. While Wall Street stumbled and oil prices spiked past $91 on Strait of Hormuz tensions, Argentine equities posted their best session in over a week, led by financials and energy names. The dollar eased to ARS 1,415 at Banco Nación while country risk fell to 552 basis points, reflecting continued investor confidence in Argentina's reform trajectory despite the turbulent international environment. This is part of The Rio Times' daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets.

The Big Three 1 Merval defies global downdraft: The index surged 2.61% while the S&P 500 fell 0.08% and European markets declined. Grupo Financiero Valores led the charge with a 9.2% gain, followed by Sociedad Comercial del Plata (+6.7%) and Metrogas (+6.5%), as investors positioned for continued reform momentum under Milei. 2 Country risk drops to 552 bps: Argentine sovereign bonds traded with a mixed tone, but the EMBI spread tightened to 552 basis points-down 0.40% on the session-signaling that the oil shock has not derailed the broader risk compression narrative that has defined Argentine fixed income since the reform program began. 3 Dollar eases across all segments: The official dollar fell ARS 5 to 1,415 at Banco Nación, the wholesale rate dropped to 1,395, and the blue dollar held at 1,415-effectively closing the gap with the official rate. The dollar MEP stood at 1,413.98 and the CCL at 1,456.44, reflecting a stable and convergent FX landscape. Merval Index Today - Market Snapshot

Indicator	Value	Change
S&P Merval (BYMA)	2,770,634.71	+70,379.47 (+2.61%)
S&P BYMA General	114,181,881.67	+2.94%
USD/ARS Official (BNA sell)	ARS 1,415.00	−5.00 (−0.35%)
USD/ARS Wholesale	ARS 1,395.00	−0.35%
USD/ARS Blue Dollar	ARS 1,415.00	−0.70%
Dollar MEP	ARS 1,413.98	−0.51%
Dollar CCL	ARS 1,456.44	−0.60%
Country Risk (EMBI)	552 bps	−0.40%
Brent Crude	$91.98	+$4.18 (+4.76%)
Gold (Apr Futures)	$5,195.71	−$46.39 (−0.88%)
S&P 500	6,775.80	−5.68 (−0.08%)
VIX	24.23	−2.81%
DXY (Dollar Index)	99.18	+0.41%
US CPI (Feb YoY)	2.4%	In line

Equities - Financials and Energy Lead the Charge

The S&P Merval surged 2.61% to close at 2,770,634.71, with the broader S&P BYMA General index advancing an even stronger 2.94% to 114,181,881.67 points. The rally was broad-based, with only three of the index's components closing in negative territory.

Grupo Financiero Valores led the session with a commanding 9.2% gain, followed by Sociedad Comercial del Plata (+6.7%) and Metrogas (+6.5%). The gainers reflected a mix of financial optimism and energy-sector positioning amid the global oil surge. On the downside, only Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos (−0.8%), Loma Negra (−0.2%), and IRSA (−0.2%) posted losses, underscoring the session's overwhelmingly bullish tone.

Despite the strong session, the Merval remains 16% below its all-time high of 3,296,502.07 reached on January 28. The index had lost nearly 14% during the February correction driven by political noise and global risk aversion, but has now recovered roughly 3.73% over the past week according to TradingView data. The year-to-date return stands at approximately 29.54% in peso terms.

Currency - Dollar Convergence Deepens

Argentina's multi-layered FX market showed continued convergence on March 11. The official dollar at Banco Nación fell ARS 5 to 1,415 for the sale, with the wholesale rate dropping to 1,395. The blue dollar held steady at 1,415-matching the official rate exactly and effectively eliminating the historically wide gap between the two.

Financial dollars also eased: the MEP declined 0.51% to 1,413.98 while the CCL fell 0.60% to 1,456.44, according to Reuters data reported by Infobae. The CCL premium over the official rate remains modest at roughly 3%, a remarkable narrowing from the double-digit spreads that characterized 2023–2024. The blue dollar has appreciated 7.52% year-to-date from its January open of 1,530, reflecting confidence in the Milei administration's fiscal and monetary discipline.

Country risk declined 0.40% to 552 basis points, continuing its gradual compression despite the global volatility. Argentine sovereign bonds in dollars traded with a mixed tone, but the overall risk premium trajectory remains favorable. For investors, the combination of a stable peso, narrowing FX spreads, and declining country risk paints a constructive picture of Argentina's re-entry into mainstream capital markets.

Technical Analysis & Chart

The daily chart shows the Merval bouncing from a correction that took the index from its January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502 down to the 2,462,000 support zone in early March. The current close at 2,770,634.71 sits near the middle of the correction range, testing the 2,754,978 level that aligns with the 50-day moving average zone.

The MACD reads 9,094.44/−85,401.20/−94,495.65, with the histogram still negative but the MACD line beginning to cross above zero-a potential early bullish signal. The RSI at 48.53 is neutral, with the slow RSI at 37.15 suggesting the index is recovering from deeply oversold conditions. Volume was moderate, indicating the rally has room to build if follow-through materializes. The 200-day SMA near 2,462,284 held as support during the correction and remains the critical long-term level.

Key Levels to Watch

Level	Merval (ARS)	Country Risk
Resistance 2	3,021,100	480 bps
Resistance 1	2,906,541	520 bps
Current Close	2,770,634	552 bps
Support 1	2,635,858	600 bps
Support 2	2,462,284	700 bps

Global Context

Wall Street closed mixed amid the Iran conflict and a benign CPI print. The S&P 500 slipped 0.08% to 6,775.80, the Dow fell 0.61% to 47,417.27, and the Nasdaq gained 0.08% to 22,716.14. The VIX declined 2.81% to 24.23 but remains elevated. The February CPI came in at 2.4% headline and 2.5% core, both in line, but was overshadowed by the geopolitical turmoil.

Brent crude surged 4.76% to $91.98 after tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA announced a record 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release, but prices continued climbing as traders bet the disruption will outlast the reserves. For Argentina, the oil dynamics are mixed: the Vaca Muerta shale formation positions the country as a potential beneficiary of global energy security concerns, but higher crude prices also increase domestic fuel costs and add pressure to inflation that has been trending down under Milei's stabilization program.

Gold retreated 0.88% to $5,195.71 as the DXY gained 0.41% to 99.18. The Fed's March 18 FOMC meeting is the next major global catalyst. For Argentina, the domestic reform narrative continues to dominate over global noise-the Merval's 2.61% rally on a day when most Latin American and global markets declined is a telling signal of the market's conviction in the country's transformation story.

Looking Ahead

Argentina's market trajectory hinges on two parallel tracks: the domestic reform agenda and the global macro environment. On the reform front, the Milei administration continues to advance its fiscal consolidation and deregulation program, with IMF negotiations and potential MSCI emerging-market reclassification (decision expected June 24) as key milestones that could unlock significant foreign capital inflows.

The broader economic outlook faces risks from the oil shock. Argentina is both an energy producer (Vaca Muerta) and a net energy importer in certain refined products, creating complex cross-currents. The peso's stability and the convergence of the blue dollar with the official rate provide a strong anchor, but the global risk-off environment could test sentiment if the Iran conflict escalates further. The BCRA's reserve accumulation and the declining country risk spread at 552 bps provide meaningful buffers.

Near-term catalysts include the Fed's March 18 decision, continued Vaca Muerta production data, and any progress on the IMF deal. The first quarter GDP data, expected in the coming weeks, will test whether the economic recovery narrative matches market expectations across the region.

The Verdict

The Merval's 2.61% surge on a day of global distress is the clearest signal yet that Argentina is trading on its own fundamentals rather than as a passive receiver of emerging-market sentiment. The convergence of the blue dollar and official rate to parity at ARS 1,415, the declining country risk at 552 bps, and the broad-based equity rally paint a picture of a market with genuine conviction in the reform story. But conviction is not invincibility: the index remains 16% below its January high, and the 2,900,000 resistance zone will require sustained momentum to breach. The oil shock is a wildcard-positive for Vaca Muerta, negative for imported inflation. The bias is moderately bullish, with the MSCI reclassification catalyst in June and the IMF deal progress as the primary upside drivers, and a deterioration in global risk appetite or reform setbacks as the key downside risks.

About this report: The Rio Times provides daily coverage of the Merval index today, along with comprehensive analysis of the Argentina peso exchange rate, Argentina country risk EMBI, blue dollar rate, and macroeconomic developments. Our Latin American financial news coverage spans Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Chile. For LATAM market analysis and emerging market intelligence Latin America, follow our daily briefings.

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