IMF Lays Out Factors Impacting Azerbaijan's Economic Growth In 2025 (Exclusive)

(MENAFN- Trend News Agency) BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 15. Azerbaijan's economic growth in 2025 slowed down by 4.1% compared to 2024, which was driven by the decline in oil production and softer growth in the non-oil sector, as the boost from past public investments faded, and the indirect effects of lower hydrocarbon prices had knock-on effects across the economy, Anna Rose Bordon, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission in the country, told Trend.

According to the mission head, inflation rose last year mainly due to external factors that pushed up food prices, but we expect it to remain within the central bank's target range in the medium term.

"We currently forecast Azerbaijan's GDP growth to slow further to 2.5% in 2026 and to stabilize around that level over the next few years. This moderate growth outlook reflects gradually declining oil production and weaker domestic demand, as oil prices remain lower than in recent years, while fiscal policy remains prudent. We will publish updated forecasts in April, at the time of the Spring Meetings," Bordon said.

Data from Azerbaijan's State Statistics Committee show that GDP amounted to 116.32 billion manat ($68.4 billion) from January through November 2025, up 1.6% year on year.

Value added in the oil and gas sector fell by 1.8% over the period, while the non-oil and gas sector grew by 3.2%, highlighting continued divergence between the country's energy and non-energy segments.

Industry accounted for 34% of GDP, followed by trade and vehicle repair at 10.6%, transport and storage at 7.2%, construction at 6.5%, agriculture, forestry, and fishing at 6.4%, accommodation and food services at 2.8%, and information and communications at 1.9%. Other sectors made up 21.1% of GDP, while net taxes on products and imports accounted for 9.5%.

GDP per capita stood at 11,356 manat ($6,680).

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