US Involvement A Key Factor In Europe's Readiness To Deploy Forces In Ukraine Austrian Expert

(MENAFN- UkrinForm) Colonel Markus Reisner, head of the Officer Training Institute at the Theresian Military Academy, said this in a comment to Ukrinform while discussing the provisions of the Paris Declaration.

"The big question, however, is to what extent the U.S. will be bindingly involved in multinational forces in Ukraine in times of peace and war in the future. The still uncertain answer to this question puts all the commitments and promises made in Paris into perspective for the time being," Reisner said.

According to him, in Paris the Europeans discussed specific security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire, "however, the key message of the draft declaration that was adopted is that the U.S. must commit to supporting the European forces deployed to Ukraine if Ukraine is attacked again."

"Without this assurance or commitment from the U.S., Europe is not prepared to proceed. This means that it is now once again up to the U.S. to make a corresponding commitment," Reisner said.

At the same time, he noted that the level of U.S. readiness to make such commitments remains uncertain, and any commitments under President Trump would represent "an incalculable risk."

Read also: Ukrainian maritime drones strip Russian fleet of any sense of security – Austrian expert

Reisner also drew attention to a scenario that still lacks a clear answer: "What happens if European countries are attacked in Ukraine and the US does not actively intervene? And without U.S. intervention, it will be difficult for Europeans to defend themselves, given their stunted military capabilities. Does Europe have thousands of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles or tens of thousands of attack drones as a deterrent against Russia, purely in terms of conventional military potential?"

According to him, "it seems inconceivable at present that European armed forces would set foot in Ukraine without the support of the United States, with its special military capabilities, and without a guarantee of U.S. military intervention in the event of a large-scale Russian attack. This is particularly true as long as Russia considers Western soldiers in Ukraine to be military targets."

"Without a corresponding UN mandate, such a mission would be based on bilateral commitments made by the participating European states to Ukraine. It would also not be covered by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, as the troops would be in Ukraine, outside NATO territory. This means that NATO's mutual defense clause would not apply in the event of a Russian attack on European troops," the military expert said.

In his opinion, theoretically these gaps could be addressed by separate international legal agreements, but they would require ratification by national parliaments, which would further complicate the process.

"In the past, either a UN mandate or the presence of the U.S. in a Coalition of the Willing guaranteed military intervention, namely by the U.S. If both of these factors are absent, Europeans must act alone and take the risk. There is no clear agreement on the future deployment of European troops in Ukraine, and serious doubts remain as to whether Western states would commit to fighting Russia in Ukraine in the event of renewed hostilities," Reisner said.

At the same time, the Austrian colonel described the trilateral declaration by Ukraine, France, and the United Kingdom on intentions to deploy multinational forces, as well as other European states' interest in joining it, as "a remarkable step and demonstrates Europe's willingness to take action."

On January 6, following a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing in Paris, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a declaration of intent on deploying multinational forces. Following the summit, the Paris Declaration was adopted, confirming the coalition members' readiness to assume politically and legally binding security commitments for Ukraine, which are to be activated after a ceasefire is established.

MENAFN10012026000193011044ID1110581021