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Mexico Morning Markets: Peso Steady Near 18, IPC Takes A Breather
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Key Points
The Mexican peso started Thursday almost unchanged, with USD/MXN around 17.988 after Wednesday's close near 17.97. The dollar index hovered around 98.7. A MUFG strategist called the latest U.S. numbers“a mixed picture,” and that tone carried into the overnight session.
Today's focus is domestic: Mexico's December inflation print and Banxico minutes. Into the releases, one desk framed a working range of roughly 17.91–18.01. U.S. jobless claims later today and Friday's payrolls remain the next external test.
Technically, the peso looks boxed in. On the 4-hour view, the market kept leaning on 18.00. A break above 18.00–18.03 would point to 18.10–18.13, then 18.22–18.32.
On the daily chart, RSI sat in the mid-40s, with support at 17.95–17.96 and then 17.87–17.84 if risk turns. Traders also watched a U.S. Supreme Court decision tied to tariff policy as a potential dollar-positive jolt.
Mexico equities told a similar story. The S&P/BMV IPC ended Wednesday down 0.23% at 64,871.7 after being down about 0.33% earlier in the session.
The weekly candle still showed a gain of about 1.14%, and the near-term map is clear: support sits around 64,200–64,000, while resistance clusters near 64,950–65,150.
Gold eased toward $4,463/oz, while WTI sat near $56.31 and Brent near $60.30. Despite the IPC dip, activity was heavy: one count put trading near 160 million shares worth about MXN 17.16 billion, while an exchange snapshot showed roughly 126 million shares.
EWW, the main U.S.-listed Mexico ETF, closed at $69.92 on about 1.07 million shares, with net assets near $1.924 billion. Emerging-market equity flows were modestly positive into year-end.
Top winners: GFINBURO +3.21%, SIGMAFA +2.47%, CHDRAUIB +2.36%, RA +2.32%, CUERVO +2.29%.
Top losers: CEMEXCPO -2.81%, TLEVISACPO -2.08%, PEOLES -1.96%, GMEXICOB -1.68%, KIMBERA -1.35%.
The through-line is credibility. Predictable rules and central-bank independence keep Mexico investable. State-heavy, populist impulses are what markets keep pricing as tail risk.
USD/MXN held near 17.99 as Mexico inflation and Banxico minutes loom, ahead of Friday's U.S. payrolls.
The IPC slipped 0.23% to 64,871.7, while the weekly chart stayed up about 1.14%.
DXY sat near 98.7, keeping risk calm, but tariff and data headlines remained the swing factor.
The Mexican peso started Thursday almost unchanged, with USD/MXN around 17.988 after Wednesday's close near 17.97. The dollar index hovered around 98.7. A MUFG strategist called the latest U.S. numbers“a mixed picture,” and that tone carried into the overnight session.
Today's focus is domestic: Mexico's December inflation print and Banxico minutes. Into the releases, one desk framed a working range of roughly 17.91–18.01. U.S. jobless claims later today and Friday's payrolls remain the next external test.
Technically, the peso looks boxed in. On the 4-hour view, the market kept leaning on 18.00. A break above 18.00–18.03 would point to 18.10–18.13, then 18.22–18.32.
On the daily chart, RSI sat in the mid-40s, with support at 17.95–17.96 and then 17.87–17.84 if risk turns. Traders also watched a U.S. Supreme Court decision tied to tariff policy as a potential dollar-positive jolt.
Mexico equities told a similar story. The S&P/BMV IPC ended Wednesday down 0.23% at 64,871.7 after being down about 0.33% earlier in the session.
The weekly candle still showed a gain of about 1.14%, and the near-term map is clear: support sits around 64,200–64,000, while resistance clusters near 64,950–65,150.
Gold eased toward $4,463/oz, while WTI sat near $56.31 and Brent near $60.30. Despite the IPC dip, activity was heavy: one count put trading near 160 million shares worth about MXN 17.16 billion, while an exchange snapshot showed roughly 126 million shares.
EWW, the main U.S.-listed Mexico ETF, closed at $69.92 on about 1.07 million shares, with net assets near $1.924 billion. Emerging-market equity flows were modestly positive into year-end.
Top winners: GFINBURO +3.21%, SIGMAFA +2.47%, CHDRAUIB +2.36%, RA +2.32%, CUERVO +2.29%.
Top losers: CEMEXCPO -2.81%, TLEVISACPO -2.08%, PEOLES -1.96%, GMEXICOB -1.68%, KIMBERA -1.35%.
The through-line is credibility. Predictable rules and central-bank independence keep Mexico investable. State-heavy, populist impulses are what markets keep pricing as tail risk.
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