Azerbaijan's Gas Diplomacy And New Geopolitics Of European Energy

Azerbaijan's main global gateway, and the backbone of the country's gas exports, is the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), a 3,500-kilometre integrated pipeline system linking the Caspian Sea to Europe. This pipeline spans Georgia and Türkiye and continues beyond the Adriatic Sea, reaching deep into southern and south-eastern Europe.

But what does this mean for the countries receiving Azerbaijani gas, and why does it matter far beyond the Caspian?

Direct, uninterrupted access from the Caspian to the EU, bypassing Russia and Iran, the West's uncompromising rivals, offers European states a vital opportunity to heat millions of homes during the coldest winters. Since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war, the EU's rejection of Russian gas, coupled with surging energy demand, has reshaped Europe's energy landscape. This shift has redrawn the geopolitical map and opened new horizons for Europe's economic future by strengthening access to energy supplies from the South Caucasus.

Azerbaijan, despite its relatively small size on the world map, has emerged among global energy suppliers as one of Europe's most reliable partners, underpinned by substantial gas resources and delivery capacity. This has enabled the country to cement its role as a long-term exporter of natural gas, an outcome that, for many, once seemed little more than a distant aspiration.

How strategic diplomacy advances Azerbaijan's foreign policy objectives

Azerbaijan's ability to advance as a gas supplier, despite being located in a complex geopolitical environment, can be explained by several factors. Foremost among them is the balanced policy pursued by the Azerbaijani leadership, which, although challenging, has been implemented with notable success. Being surrounded by neighbours such as Russia and Iran, while simultaneously managing relations with the West in a measured and pragmatic manner, represents diplomacy at its highest level.

Moreover, Azerbaijan's success in bringing a long-running conflict in the South Caucasus to an end within a relatively short period has delivered substantial political and economic dividends. Economic development begins with security. Sustaining long-term and stable partnerships in an insecure environment is as difficult as finding a needle in a haystack.

Today, Azerbaijan is capable of supplying natural gas not only to 14 countries, but to as many as 16 countries worldwide. It is no coincidence that President Ilham Aliyev referred to this in an interview with local media, noting that the country's gas exports exceeded 25 billion cubic metres last year.

“Our gas exports are growing with respect to both volume and geography. So far, we have supplied gas to 14 countries, 11 of them on a regular basis,” President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev said in an interview with local television channels on January 5.

“There are countries that received our gas in 2024 but then stopped because of other sources. It is kind of on demand: whenever they need it, we start supply; when they do not need it, we cut it. But in total, the geographical coverage of pipeline gas from Azerbaijan amounts to 14 countries, and two more European countries will be added this year. So in total, it will be 16, and this is the largest number with respect to pipeline gas. No other country in the world supplies pipeline gas to as many countries as Azerbaijan. Our exports last year exceeded 25 billion cubic meters, with potential for growth,” the head of state noted.

Critics sometimes point out that Azerbaijani volumes are modest when compared with Europe's overall demand. That observation is factually correct and strategically misleading. Energy security is not a question of replacing one dependency with another, but of diluting risk across multiple suppliers and routes. Azerbaijani gas functions as a stabiliser within this system: predictable, contract-based, and politically low-risk.

Moreover, the impact of Azerbaijani gas extends well beyond the molecules delivered through its pipelines. By supplying Türkiye and southern Europe, it displaces LNG that would otherwise be required in these markets. Those LNG cargoes are then redirected to Asia, Africa or Latin America. In this way, Azerbaijani gas contributes indirectly to global market balance, helping to reduce price volatility far beyond Europe's borders.

Looking ahead, Azerbaijan's importance is likely to grow rather than diminish. Production from fields such as Shah Deniz, Absheron, and other offshore structures provides a stable upstream base. At the same time, discussions around trans-Caspian connectivity, particularly involving Turkmen gas, highlight Azerbaijan's potential evolution from a supplier into a full-fledged transit hub for Central Asian energy.

Crucially, Azerbaijan has framed its gas exports not as a challenge to the energy transition, but as a complement to it. European policymakers increasingly recognise that decarbonisation without security is politically unsustainable. In this context, reliable pipeline gas from a stable partner can underpin the transition by cushioning economies against supply shocks.

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