(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Argentina began December with market calm. The wholesale dollar closed near 1,451 pesos, barely moving, while Banco Nación's retail rate ended around 1,475.

The blue dollar traded close to 1,445 and the MEP and CCL sat only slightly higher, leaving the street rate cheaper than the official counter.

That tight gap reflects a very specific bet. Investors are backing Javier Milei's fiscal squeeze and the US Treasury support package even though net reserves remain thin.

Authorities have trimmed their short-dollar futures exposure and honoured a one-billion-dollar Bopreal maturity, buying time but not rebuilding buffers.

Price action and the global backdrop support that reading. On weekly charts USD/ARS still trends higher above rising moving averages, underlining structural peso weakness.



The daily chart shows a narrow 1,440–1,460 band, while the four-hour view is pressed against the upper Bollinger band with an RSI near 70, signalling an overbought but not panicked market.

Meanwhile the dollar index has slipped toward 99 after Bank of Japan rate-hike hints rattled carry trades, easing broad FX pressure. Equities are trading as if the reform story will hold.

The S&P Merva rose 1.1% to 3,060,289 points; in dollars it jumped 2.6% back above the 2,000-point mark. Brokers at IEB see room toward fresh highs, and strategist Salvador di Stefano talks of a“very bullish” market into year-end.



Monday's tape showed who investors expect to benefit most from tariff normalisation and tighter budget discipline. The five big winners on the leader board were Transener (+5.1%), Central Puerto (+4.8%), Edenor (+3.8%), Aluar (+3.7%) and Metrogas (+3.5%), all tied to energy, power or heavy industry.

There were no losers in the main panel; offshore and hard-dollar plays lagged instead, with Cresud, IRSA and Banco Macro ADRs, plus AL30 and AL38 sovereign bonds, slipping on global rate jitters.

Foreign money remains more cautious than locals. The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF fell about 0.8% to 92 dollars, on volume below its recent average.

From abroad the trade looks binary: attractive as long as fiscal discipline and deregulation survive, and exposed if politics slide back toward controls and cheap money. For now, December opens with calm screens and a nervous kind of confidence.

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