(MENAFN- Khaleej Times)

Population growth is outpacing new residential supply in Dubai as the emirate continues to attract new expatriate residents, investors and millionaires, say experts.

With population growth likely to continue increasing, they suggest that this trend will continue to support the sector over the next three to four years.

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According to Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment, the emirate's population grew by 17,660 in just one month, reaching 4.04 million in mid-November as more expatriates, professionals and investors flock to the city.

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This is compared to only 7,800 units in the third quarter of 2025, with another 14,900 expected in Q4, bringing the annual total supply to 44,000 units. This is much less than the inflow of new residents into the city, as per Cushman and Wakefield Core data.

“Even the sold units or the ones that are being released will not be enough to meet the demand. You can see what's happening on the roads. Traffic is growing; similarly, too many bridges are also coming up. You need many more units. So the population is outstripping the supply,” said Hassan Saliba, CEO of Stage Properties.

“Some people claim that some correction might happen in the property market. I can tell you that nothing will happen in the next three to four years. So, whatever good or bad things are happening globally are positively affecting Dubai. I'm confident that Dubai is the right place to be for an investor in terms of security, luxury life and zero tax among other things,” he added.

470 new residents, 150 homes a day

According to Vitesh K. Kohli, principal consultant at Real One Assets, Dubai's population crossed 4.03 million as of October 2025, growing 4.47 per cent year-on-year, which means 470 new residents every single day. That's a demand for roughly 150 new homes daily.

“Dubai is welcoming more people, wealth, and investors than ever before, but the housing pipeline isn't keeping up. For buyers, that means long-term supply pressure and strong capital appreciation potential, especially in villa and townhouse communities,” he added.

Ghassan Saliba, CEO of Stage Properties Brokers, said, as reported, over 17,000 people relocated to Dubai.

Amidst rising property prices and rentals, Dubai in March announced the allocation of land to develop more than 17,000 affordable units across the emirate.

Dubai also introduced several initiatives to help residents enter the property market and offset rising rents. A First-Time Home Buyer Programme gives eligible residents priority on launches, preferential pricing and easier mortgage pathways for homes valued up to Dh5 million.

Will new residents be priced out?

The Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan aims to grow the city's population to 5.8 million by the year 2040. To achieve this, an estimated 128,000 new residents would need to move to the city each year, according to Allsopp & Allsopp.

“This year alone, Dubai has welcomed 208,000 new residents, exceeding the projected pace. While this suggests the population target will likely be met ahead of schedule, there is a critical challenge - the supply of affordable housing is not keeping up with demand,” it said.

“The challenge remains for Dubai to deliver enough housing to support its fast-growing population. Using a conservative average household size of four, Dubai needs more than 40,000 new homes each year to accommodate incoming residents, yet current delivery rates are only about half of that,” it added.

Without a stronger focus on affordable housing, it cautioned that new residents and those seeking to enter the property market may find themselves priced out, which could limit population growth in the long term.

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