(MENAFN- The Rio Times) The Brazilian real hovered around 5.38–5.39 per dollar on Wednesday morning, a steady open after the spot market closed Tuesday at 5.3906.

Global dynamics turned slightly more supportive overnight as the U.S. Dollar Index eased and gold rebounded from Tuesday's sharp sell-off, calming risk sentiment across emerging markets.

At home, attention remains on how the government will replace the failed MP 1.303 tax measure and unlock the 2026 budget-guidelines vote now expected in November.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said the Finance Ministry will present a package that mixes spending cuts and new revenues with an estimated fiscal impact“above R$20 billion ($3.77 billion).”

Credible specifics would help narrow Brazil 's risk premium; protracted wrangling would likely keep the currency capped.



Abroad, the yen steadied following the installation of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and fresh talk of a large stimulus package, which nudged the dollar index lower in Asian hours.
Why Brazil's Currency Still Trades Sideways
The snapback in gold after its biggest one-day fall since 2020 also trimmed haven demand for the dollar and reduced cross-asset volatility that spilled into currencies earlier in the week.

Positioning remains two-way. Brazil risk proxies were active on Tuesday, with heavy turnover in onshore dollar futures and brisk trading in Brazil-focused equities abroad.

Elevated volumes fit a market defending a well-worn USD/BRL range while it waits for a policy catalyst. Technically, USD/BRL is consolidating. On a four-hour chart, momentum is soft-RSI in the low-40s and a slightly negative MACD-while Bollinger Bands have flattened.

Immediate support clusters around 5.35–5.36; resistance sits near 5.40–5.42 and then 5.45. The daily chart shows a broader corridor near 5.37–5.45. In plain terms: sideways trading persists unless Brasília delivers firm numbers or the global dollar trend shifts.

Why this matters: the next move in the real hinges on two simple variables you can track-Brazil's fiscal package (size, timing, credibility) and the global dollar narrative tied to upcoming U.S. data and central-bank signals.

Clear fiscal math alongside a softer dollar would favor BRL strength; delays in Congress or a renewed dollar bid would likely push the pair back toward the top of the range.

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