(MENAFN- The Arabian Post) By Nitya Chakraborty

There is a big possibility of renewal of India-US bilateral ties impacting the ongoing trade talks following the proposed one on one meeting between the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the U.S. President Donald Trump during their presence in Kuala Lumpur to attend the summit of ASEAN members on October 26 to 28 this year.

Two weeks are still left for the summit. There has been no official confirmation from the Indian foreign ministry about the travel plans of the PM Narendra Modi, but the host Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has confirmed the attendance of both the PM Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump at the summit. The Chinese President Xi Jinping, however, will not be attending. China will be represented by the Prime Minister Li Qiang.

ASEAN bloc presently has eleven members - Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and East Timor. India, US and China are not members, but they are always invited as friendly observers. Similarly, Japan, Brazil, South Africa and Canada have also been invited. Presidents of both Brazil and South Africa are attending. The deliberations at the three day meet have special significance in view of the latest Israel-Hamas peace deal and also ASEAN concerns about the security in South China Sea involving China.

For India, the meeting will be of crucial importance as this will be the second face to face meeting in 2025 between Prime Minister Modi and the US President Donald Trump. They last met on February 13 this year. That meeting took place showing great bonhomie between the two and Indian PM expressing his confidence to step up India-US trade to 500 billion by the year 2030. But with the unilateral tariff hike of 25 per cent on Indian exports announced by Trump effective from April 1 this year and subsequent penalty of another 25 per cent with effect from August this year, put a total tariff of 50 per cent on Indian exports to the USA, having serious impact on the Indian exports to the USA in the current financial year. Especially, the imposition of additional 25 per cent penalty on Indian exports for importing oil from Russia stunned the Indian government.

Apart, after the four day war between India and Pakistan in May this year, President Trump took the credit for the stoppage of the war by threatening both countries with trade embargo. This was resented by the Indian Prime Minister who took the position that India agreed to the ceasefire on its own without any interference from any outside power following the appeal of battered Pakistan. The issue of Trump's role in stopping India-Pakistan war still is raging. Trump must have mentioned it nearly fifty times in the last five months since the ceasefire on May 10 this year. Even this was mentioned by him last week while bidding for Nobel Peace prize which finally was denied to him this year.

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Political analysts of the evolving turbulent Indi-US bilateral relations have noted that the Indian Prime Minister has gradually diluted his strong anti-US position in the last one week and has started giving signals of wooing Trump which has become embarrassing for the Indian foreign ministry. Modi talked to Trump immediately after the Israel-Hamas deal was announced and congratulated him on the success of his historic Gaza peace plan. But more important was that the Indian PM crossed all diplomatic limits in praising the leadership of the Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This was meant to be on the good books of Trump.

Narendra Modi's anxiousness to woo the US President further was evident on Thursday when he took to X twice in congratulating Trump. In all such posts, it was apparent that the Indian PM was trying again to get back to the good books of the President as he was before the beginning of the trade war in April this year. The coming meeting in Kuala Lumpur is being held in this context- a bit changed from Indian PM's diplomatic stance at the SCO summit and his bilateral meet with the Chinese President Xi Jinping on August 31 in Tianjin this year.

If diplomatic sources are to be believed, the US state department officials have been consistently impressing on the Indian foreign ministry that only a direct meet of PM Modi and President Trump can help in removing the irritants. They have been mentioning that India's natural place is with the USA and a bit ego massaging of Trump by Modi at the Kuala Lumpur summit can help facilitate the renewal of India-US relations including the trade ties. There is pressure on Modi from the PIO tech leaders who are worried at the deterioration in India-US relations.

Now the question naturally arises how is the Indian PM going to deal with the US President in the context of improvement of ties with China and Russia and the emergence of an informal troika of China, India and Russia in global affairs after the last SCO summit in China on August 31 and September 1 this year. The new phase of India-China relations has started with the resumption of flights between the two countries. Other measures are also being implemented to pep up bilateral relations which froze after the Galwan battle in July 2020.

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Similarly, President Putin will be visiting India on December 5 and 6 and the focus of discussions will be on expanding economic ties including continuing the Indian imports of oil products from Russia which the US is objecting and which has led Trump to impose penalty of 25 per cent on Indian exports. Trump has been consistently focusing on this Indian oil import angle by saying even India through Russian oil imports, is financing Putin's Ukraine war. How is PM Modi going to solve this oil import issue with Trump without disturbing his coming talks with President Putin to be held five weeks after his proposed one on one with Trump?

As regards Trump, his visit to Kuala Lumpur for the ASEAN summit will be the first time the US President has visited Malaysia in a decade. Barack Obama visited in 2015 and now Trump is visiting as the leader who has brokered peace in many regions, the latest being the Gaza peace deal. Similarly Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has also brokered the peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand and has got appreciation from Trump. Ibrahim will try to emerge as a regional leader through this summit with Trump's support.

But on Israel, Malaysia differs strongly with both Trump and Modi. Malaysia wanted Netanyahu to be declared a war criminal and along with other ASEAN members took position against Israeli genocide in Gaza. Malaysia also sided with Pakistan following the India-Pak confrontation in May this year. So in bilateral talks with Malaysian PM Ibrahim, Indian PM will not have a smooth passage, but both the PMs can focus more on the possibilities of economic collaboration.

Both the Indian foreign ministry officials and the White House must be preparing adequately for the Modi-Trump meeting. The stakes are very high for both sides but for India, it is higher, especially for the Prime Minister who staked a lot personally in favour of Trump. That was why Trump's behaviour after April this year shocked him. But in politics, these shocks happen and the people in power have to tackle such sudden developments with statesmanship and vision. In the changing dynamics of global geopolitics, it is to be seen how Prime Minister Narendra Modi takes care of the national interests by strongly defending the strategic autonomy of India in his coming meeting with the US President while not disturbing the process of improvement of India's bilateral relations with China and Russia. (IPA Service )

The article Trump-Modi Meet At ASEAN Summit In Malaysia Can Remove Irritants In Indo-US Ties appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency) .

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