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Why Brazil's Real Slipped To R$5.38
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) The dollar traded around R$5.38 on Friday morning, extending Thursday's rise as global demand for the greenback overshadowed a softer oil market and Brazil's traditionally high interest-rate cushion.
The day and night in brief. The move began Thursday, when the dollar strengthened broadly amid a still-unresolved U.S. government shutdown and mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials: some urging caution on further rate cuts, others arguing that a softer labor market warrants more easing this year.
A tentative cease-fire and hostage deal in Gaza pulled crude lower-normally a mild positive for the real-but safe-haven flows kept the dollar bid. Yen weakness and political jitters in Europe added to the dollar's tailwind across emerging markets.
The Brazil angle. In Brasília, the Lower House withdrew MP 1,303 , a measure to tax certain financial investments, effectively letting it expire. That setback muddied near-term revenue plans and nudged risk premia higher.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said alternatives are coming, but until details emerge the uncertainty blunts Brazil's carry appeal despite the Selic at 15% .
On the data side, September IPCA rose 0.48% month on month , lifting 12-month inflation to 5.17% -slightly softer than forecasts but still consistent with the central bank holding rates for now.
Market color. Stocks reflected the mood: the Ibovespa slipped modestly on Thursday, and the main U.S.-listed Brazil ETF recorded notable net outflows , signaling foreign investor caution as fiscal headlines and a firm dollar collide.
What the charts say. On the 4-hour chart , USD/BRL is pressing the upper Bollinger band near 5.38 with momentum indicators pointing higher-suggesting a test of 5.40 and possibly 5.45 .
The daily chart still caps rallies: spot sits below the falling 200-day average (≈5.63) and under the Ichimoku cloud, leaving a broader 5.30–5.45 range intact unless a clean break tops 5.45 , which would open 5.50–5.55 . First supports are 5.35 and 5.33 .
Bottom line. The real's slip is less about Brazil's fundamentals than the mix of a stronger global dollar and fresh fiscal uncertainty at home.
Today's direction hinges on U.S. funding headlines, any concrete fiscal proposals from Brasília, and whether the dollar's momentum cools-or extends.
The day and night in brief. The move began Thursday, when the dollar strengthened broadly amid a still-unresolved U.S. government shutdown and mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials: some urging caution on further rate cuts, others arguing that a softer labor market warrants more easing this year.
A tentative cease-fire and hostage deal in Gaza pulled crude lower-normally a mild positive for the real-but safe-haven flows kept the dollar bid. Yen weakness and political jitters in Europe added to the dollar's tailwind across emerging markets.
The Brazil angle. In Brasília, the Lower House withdrew MP 1,303 , a measure to tax certain financial investments, effectively letting it expire. That setback muddied near-term revenue plans and nudged risk premia higher.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said alternatives are coming, but until details emerge the uncertainty blunts Brazil's carry appeal despite the Selic at 15% .
On the data side, September IPCA rose 0.48% month on month , lifting 12-month inflation to 5.17% -slightly softer than forecasts but still consistent with the central bank holding rates for now.
Market color. Stocks reflected the mood: the Ibovespa slipped modestly on Thursday, and the main U.S.-listed Brazil ETF recorded notable net outflows , signaling foreign investor caution as fiscal headlines and a firm dollar collide.
What the charts say. On the 4-hour chart , USD/BRL is pressing the upper Bollinger band near 5.38 with momentum indicators pointing higher-suggesting a test of 5.40 and possibly 5.45 .
The daily chart still caps rallies: spot sits below the falling 200-day average (≈5.63) and under the Ichimoku cloud, leaving a broader 5.30–5.45 range intact unless a clean break tops 5.45 , which would open 5.50–5.55 . First supports are 5.35 and 5.33 .
Bottom line. The real's slip is less about Brazil's fundamentals than the mix of a stronger global dollar and fresh fiscal uncertainty at home.
Today's direction hinges on U.S. funding headlines, any concrete fiscal proposals from Brasília, and whether the dollar's momentum cools-or extends.
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