Many forest carbon offset programmes claim to help reduce climate change, but a new study shows they often overstate their benefits. These programmes try to cut emissions by saving forests, but they sometimes promise more environmental help than they truly provide. This new study published in the journal Science shows that most of these projects don't deliver as much as they claim.

The research focuses on a programme called REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation). Its goal is to lower emissions by stopping deforestation in tropical areas. In return, these projects create carbon credits that businesses or people can buy to offset their own emissions. The study was done by scientists mainly from China at the Guangdong Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy. It also included Professor Jonathan Chase from the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research and the Martin Luther University in Germany.

The Hidden Truth of Forest Carbon Credits

The research team examined 52 REDD+ projects covering 66 areas. It follows earlier concerns raised in 2023 by other studies and media reports about the trustworthiness of these carbon credits.

To assess the real impact of these projects, the researchers used a method called“synthetic control.” This technique compares the actual results in a project area with what would likely have happened without the project. They looked at nearby regions with similar conditions like climate, geography, and local economy that didn't have REDD+ projects. These areas helped estimate how much deforestation might have occurred without intervention.

The projects were spread across 14 tropical countries in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. The study found that only about one-third of the projects (32%) clearly reduced deforestation compared to their control areas. Some projects in Brazil did very well. But about 17% of the projects actually saw more deforestation than their matched areas, suggesting they might have failed completely.

Forest Carbon Offsets

Many projects exaggerated the amount of deforestation they prevented. For example, in Colombia, some projects claimed to stop deforestation at a rate ten times higher than the data showed. When the researchers looked at 48 projects with public data, they found that 228 million carbon credits had been issued by the end of 2022.

Of these, 127 million had already been used to offset emissions. However, the study estimated that only about 35 million of those credits actually represented real emissions reductions.

This gap between claimed and actual impact raises serious questions about the reliability of the carbon offset market. Professor Chase suggested that better methods for estimating baselines, more independent reviews, and a mix of different climate solutions could help improve the system.

Despite these challenges, the scientists believe REDD+ can still help fight climate change if done properly. The key is to improve how it's designed, monitored, and evaluated so that every carbon credit issued reflects a real and measurable impact. With the right approach, forest protection projects can be a useful tool in the fight against climate change, but they must be backed by solid evidence, not just good intentions.

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