Mexico Markets Hold Steady As Firm Dollar Tests The Peso

2025-10-09 05:00:33

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Mexico's stock market rose and the peso barely moved-two small signals that say a lot. The S&P/BMV IPC gained 1.12% on Wednesday to 60,888.56 as oil prices eased and global risk appetite stabilized.

Early Thursday, the peso hovered near 18.32 per dollar, kept in check by a sturdy Dollar Index in the high-98s and U.S. 10-year yields close to 4.13%.

The day's leaderboard tells the mood. Miners and defensives led: Peñoles (+5.06%), Qualitas (+3.71%), Grupo México (+2.28%), Walmart de México (+2.21%) and Coca-Cola FEMSA (+2.12%).

On the other side, interest-sensitive and idiosyncratic names lagged: Regional (-3.07%), Gruma (-2.99%), Bimbo (-2.97%), Televisa (-2.90%) and Grupo Carso A1 (-2.89%).

It was not euphoria-more a selective, dip-buying session after recent wobble. The story behind the story is a push-pull most investors will recognize.

A firmer dollar and steady U.S. yields cap emerging-market currencies, including the peso. At the same time, cheaper crude as Middle East risk premia ease supports sentiment and helps an oil-importing region.

Locally, the Bank of Mexico's minutes due later set the tone after September's quarter-point rate cut: inflation has cooled, but core pressures remain sticky, so policymakers are loosening cautiously.

That balancing act-gentle easing without losing inflation credibility-is why the peso is calm rather than jubilant. Technically, USD/MXN is coiling in a tight 18.29–18.38 band on the 4-hour chart, with momentum indicators soft-classic range behavior until a catalyst hits.

On the daily chart, the pair still sits below a falling trend line and under the Ichimoku cloud, leaving a mild peso-supportive tilt as long as spot stays under roughly 18.38–18.45.

For equities, the IPC 's daily setup shows cooling momentum but firm support in the high-59,000s; a clear push through 61,050 would revive the late-September upswing, while a drop below about 59,980 risks a deeper test toward 59,500–58,800.

In short: Mexico's markets are holding their nerve. The next decisive move likely depends on the tone of Banxico's minutes, whether oil's slide sticks, and if the dollar finally breaks higher-or blinks.

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