(MENAFN- Khaleej Times)

UAE residents flying to the southern Indian state of Kerala over the winter break this year can expect an increase in ticket rates of up to 35 percent, according to travel experts. This comes even as Air India Express has vowed to reinstate the flights it planned to reduce during its winter season starting October 15.

“We are expecting an increase in ticket rates between 30 to 35 per cent in addition to the usual seasonal peak that we see during the school winter break,” said Safeer Mohammed, General Manager of Smart Travels.“Air India Express has said that it will reinstate some of the flights in this season itself. However, there is no clarity on which flights will be reinstated and when. So currently the flight ticket prices are continuing to be high.”

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Currently, ticket rates to Kerala during the December holidays start from Dh1,500, while prices were starting at Dh800 and going up to Dh1,200 last year at the same time, according to Safeer. During off-peak season, these ticket prices usually start from around Dh650.

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Last week reports emerged that Air India was planning to reschedule its low cost flights, Air India Express, to reduce the number of services to Kerala during the winter schedule stretching from October 2025 to March 2026, prompting strong reactions from the Indian diaspora and politicians calling on the carrier to refrain from doing so. Keralites form one of the largest expatriate groups in the UAE , with their numbers thought to exceed 1 million.

According to Indian media reports, airline officials assured Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan during a high-level meeting on Monday that the cuts were only temporary and that the airline will restore the reduced flight services during the winter season itself. However, more information on the details of this reinstatement are still awaited.

The airline has also announced that that by 2026, the number of international flights from Kerala will rise to 231 and domestic flights to 245, offsetting the present shortfall.

According to Safeer, the Kerala sector is one that sees a 60 to 70 per cent occupancy throughout the year.“So the decision by Air India Express to cut its 12 flights a week to 7 will have a huge impact on ticket rates,” he said.“If they reinstate the flights during the month of December, it will offer much needed respite to travellers.”

Government intervention

Other travel experts opined that such rearrangement of flights among private airlines was common.“The main aim of private airlines is to maximise their revenue,” said Sudheesh T.P., GM of Deira Travels.“There were times when tickets to Kerala had dropped to just a few hundred dirhams. This will have an impact on the earnings of the airline. Air India Express was privatised in 2022 and it is not practical to expect them to continue functioning like a national carrier.”

Sudheesh added that the current issue highlights the need for government intervention in India's airline industry.“Either the government should have a national carrier or it should be open to allowing more foreign aircrafts to operate in the country,” he said.“Bilateral agreements for aviation between UAE and India was last signed in 2014. They are supposed to be reviewed every year and changes are supposed to be made according to the need. However, India has not revisited the agreement in 11 years. It is high time the government intervenes to find a long-term solution.”

Safeer highlighted that the current gap in the market would be beneficial for other carriers.“Airlines such as Akasa and Indigo have the opportunity to expand their offerings and take advantage of the situation,” he said.

Mohamed Kasim from Akbar Travels said that outside of the winter break, the changes are not bound to have a significant impact on travellers.“The flight adjustments are only for the winter schedule from October to March,” he said.“During this period, December is the only peak flying month. I don't think it will make a significant impact on travellers.”

Impact on people

The increase in prices will be difficult for those in the low-income category, according to community groups. Nissar Thalangara, president of Indian Association Sharjah sent a memorandum to the Prime Minister of India, expressing deep concern about the issue.

Thalangara noted in his letter that Air India Express' move will“dismantle a critical lifeline” for thousands of low-income and middle-income migrant workers, students and families who depend on affordable air connectivity between Kerala and the GCC region. He told Khaleej Times that his campaign has been met with a positive response.“Some elected representatives have agreed to raise the issue in the parliament and hopefully we will see a move that resolves the issue,” he said.

He added that while it was great news that Air India Express will reinstate its flights to Kerala, the Indian government should pursue a more stable long-term solution for the issue.

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