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Or China envisions forcing conquest or vassalage on the world. It is neither good nor bad; politics is beyond moral judgments. But is it realistic? Imposing vassalage on the world would be very risky. The Chinese may think about their history.

According to the Zuo Zhuan, since the weakening of the Zhou Dynasty in 711 BC, at least five states assumed the role of hegemons (ba) in the ancient Zhou territories. Combining analyses from other authors, such as Xunzi, suggests that there could have been up to ten.

Eventually, the system collapsed in the middle of the 5^th century BC, when most of the smaller states were eliminated and the struggle for major unification began. About 200 states emerged from the Zhou collapse, a number strikingly similar to the number of states represented at the United Nations today.

Even those considering replicating ancient Chinese history realize there is more than a 99% chance of failure for a process of global unification, and it's uncertain whether China will be the ultimate winner of the race.

There is a possibility that the American system could rapidly collapse in the coming years. China might decide to shut itself off, hoping, like in an apocalypse, to survive in partial isolation and then rebuild. Meanwhile, it would have time to consider how to put the pieces back together after the collapse, understanding that this also depends on how the disaster unfolds.

Even if the world doesn't fall apart, China will have gained time and will determine how to handle whatever happens next, based on the circumstances. Overall, China is in a reasonably good position.

Furthermore, Taiwan, the prize of ultimate national unification, is at risk. There is no need for invasion. Beijing may have underground forces on the island, including triads and billionaires who are fed up with the trappings and inefficiencies of democracy. They can shift the political and social balance on the island at any moment.

Therefore, what should the US do? Does it have a plan? Now, US President Donald Trump apparently doesn't want to be caught in long-term strategies that can't be quickly verified. The idea may have its merits, but a short-term deal with China doesn't address the bigger China challenge.

Making the US richer than ever may not make up for declining support from allies or the lack of long-term global plans. The US must address its issues, but doing so risks upending its own international system. That can be understandable, but then the US needs to establish a new global system that allies and the world generally can support.

Upon re-reading the analysis, it becomes clear that China's short-term successes largely result from American mistakes. Regarding points 1 and 4, China has been preparing for a trade war since 2019, when talks with the US broke down. Meanwhile, America did not prepare.

On point 2 – again, the US was unprepared not only militarily but also strategically. US President Barack Obama negotiated a strategically vital free trade agreement in Asia, but in 2016, Trump canceled it, leaving Asian countries more vulnerable to Chinese military and commercial pressure.