(MENAFN) The World Trade Organization (WTO) has increased its forecast for worldwide trade growth in 2025 to 2.4%, a significant rise from the previous estimate of 0.9% made in August.

However, the organization cautioned that growth is expected to decelerate in 2026, as detailed in the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released on Tuesday.

According to the report, "Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on artificial intelligence (AI)-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world."

This robust performance in trade activity helped lift the outlook for the year.

Despite the optimistic revision for 2025, the anticipated 2.4% increase still remains slightly lower than the 2.8% growth recorded in 2024. Looking further ahead, the forecast for global trade in 2026 was downgraded from 1.8% to just 0.5%.

This reduction reflects the possibility that the impacts of tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump, varying by country and sector, could be deferred to next year.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted that the cautious reactions of countries to tariff adjustments, combined with the growth potential offered by artificial intelligence and heightened trade especially among emerging economies, have played a role in reducing trade disruptions.

She emphasized that the resilience of trade in 2025 can be largely attributed to the "stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system."

Nonetheless, she warned against complacency, stating, "Today's disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere."

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