Bread Prices In Ukraine Continue To Increase Monthly Expert

(MENAFN- UkrinForm) Svitlana Cheremisina, Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Chief Researcher at the Agrarian Market and International Integration Department of the National Scientific Center“Institute of Agrarian Economics,” Svitlana Cheremisina told Ukrinform this in a comment

According to the researcher, the trend of monthly bread price hikes, which was relevant last year, has persisted this year as well. Each month, the assortment of bakery products is becoming 1–1.7% more expensive, depending on the type of product.

Her forecast indicates that if this dynamic continues, by the end of 2025, premium wheat bread could cost UAH 63.5/kg (+22.3% year-on-year), first-grade wheat bread UAH 49.6/kg (+16.7%), rye bread UAH 50.6/kg (+12.1%), and a loaf UAH 30.9 per 0.5 kg (+11.2%).

“Annual price growth for bakery products will fluctuate between 11% and 23%, depending on the type of product,” Cheremisina noted.

At the same time, the expert stressed that the grain harvest in Ukraine has never been a decisive factor in determining bread prices. Only 20–25% of harvested grain is used domestically, while the rest is exported.

“Over the past three years, annual grain price increases have not been as critical compared to other direct and indirect factors in bread production. Currently, the average purchase price of wheat by processing enterprises is UAH 7,901.3/t, only 12% higher than at the beginning of 2022. The price of rye, on the other hand, has risen significantly – by 72%, reaching UAH 9,277/t,” the researcher emphasized.

Since the beginning of 2025, wheat flour has risen in price by 4.3% to UAH 12.81/kg, rye flour by 55.2% to UAH 13.68/kg, and sunflower oil by 11.4% to UAH 81.02/kg, while sugar has decreased by 1.4% to UAH 32.68/kg.

According to Cheremisina, the main pressure on prices comes from other factors: the rising cost of raw materials, fuel, and energy. Since the start of the year, gasoline has gone up by 6.7% to UAH 57.66/l, and diesel by 6.9% to UAH 55.84/l.

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She also pointed to labor costs as an important factor.

"Given the critical importance of bakery enterprises for the economy and the implementation of the mechanism for reserving employees, they are required to ensure an official wage level of no less than UAH 20,000 per month. Therefore, rising labor costs are also contributing to higher bakery product prices,” Cheremisina concluded.

As reported, two new grain processing plants are being built in Ukraine this year – one in the west of the country to produce flour and another in the Poltava region to produce groats.

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