Colombian Peso And COLCAP Brief: Technical Dip Amid Dollar Weakness

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) A surge in U.S. economic data has driven the peso's advance and tested Colombia's stock index.

Data from the U.S. Trade Department showed weaker retail sales than forecast on September 16, prompting a pullback in the U.S. dollar and easing pressure on emerging-market currencies.

The ICE USD/COP spot rate fell to COP 3 865.5 in Bogotá trading, down 0.64% over the past 24 hours, and hit a fresh two-month low against a 20-day simple moving average at COP 3 906.0.

The index closed just above its 200-day SMA at COP 4 154.8, underlining the broader downtrend in the dollar. Trading volumes in the peso spot market remained moderate, as export hedgers rolled short positions ahead of end-month settlements.

Pension funds and offshore accounts supplied dollars at 10:00 a.m., while local banks absorbed flows near COP 3 860. Market-maker quotes peaked at COP 3 883.5 and dipped to COP 3 847.1 around midday.

The Bollinger Bands narrowed, signaling reduced volatility, while the relative strength index fell to 25.6, marking oversold territory and suggesting a technical bounce toward COP 3 899.



Meanwhile, the MSCI COLCAP closed at 1 838.67 points, down 0.45% from the prior session. The COLCAP 's 50-day EMA (COP 1 918.6) capped intraday rallies, while the 200-day SMA (COP 1 611.7) provided rising support.

The market saw best performers in Grupo Nutresa (+2.3%) and Ecopetrol (+1.8%), driven by commodity price gains and bullish cash flows. Losers included Avianca (-3.1%) and Bancolombia (-2.4%) amid profit-taking in travel and financial stocks.

Volume in COLCAP-tracked ETFs registered net outflows of COP 4.2 billion, as global funds rotated to Asian and U.S. equities ahead of Fed minutes.

Chart analysis for the past 24 hours showed MACD lines for COLCAP in a bearish crossover on the four-hour chart, signaling waning upward momentum.

The daily MACD histogram turned negative for the first time since early July. Ichimoku cloud support at COP 1 828 held twice intraday, as the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen converged, flagging sideways risk.

On the USD/COP four-hour chart, MACD flagged a mild bullish divergence, while price remained below the Ichimoku Kumo, affirming the near-term downtrend.

The global liquidity index (yellow overlay) rose marginally, indicating broader risk appetite from liquidity inflows into emerging markets.



Benchmarking shows the peso outperformed the Mexican peso, which slid 0.3%, but underperformed Brazil 's real, which firmed 1.1% after strong retail figures. COLCAP lagged Peru's S&P/BVL Perú General (+0.5%) but outpaced Chile's IPSA (-0.6%).

Technical setups suggest short-term currency sellers may pause near COP 3 860 as RSI nears 30, while stock investors eye COP 1 828 support for buying dips. Market participants will focus on Fed minutes later today and domestic inflation data for fresh catalysts.
Top five daily winners:

• Grupo Nutresa +2.3%
  
• Ecopetrol +1.8%
  
• Cementos Argos +1.5%
  
• Grupo Aval +1.2%
  
• Terpel +1.0%
  

Top five daily losers:

• Avianca −3.1%
  
• Bancolombia −2.4%
  
• Grupo Sura −1.9%
  
• Falabella de Colombia −1.7%
  
• Cementos Argos ADR −1.5%
  

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