Brazil's Financial Morning Call For September 17, 2025

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets are navigating a dynamic landscape, balancing robust domestic gains against global monetary shifts.

Brazil's unemployment rate dropped to 5.6% in July, the lowest since 2015 and better than consensus expectations of 5.7%, with a record 102.4 million Brazilians employed.

The gains were driven by strength in services, technology, and logistics, despite retail sales contracting 0.3% and services expanding only modestly by 0.3%.

However, JP Morgan cautions that this economic progress is insufficient for a Selic rate cut, citing persistent services inflation above 5% annually-well over the 3% target-and stubborn price pressures that could spike if policy eases prematurely.

The bank forecasts only a potential 0.25 percentage point cut by end-2025 or early 2026, with rates likely staying above 12% a year from now to anchor confidence amid global uncertainties.



The Ibovespa soared to a record high, fueled by a strong real and expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, setting the stage for today's critical economic agenda.

Unemployment News, JP Morgan Selic Outlook
Economic Agenda for September 17, 2025
Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)

• 7:00 AM BRT – IGP-10 Inflation Index (MoM) (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.2%. Tracks wholesale, consumer, and construction price changes.
  

Implication: A softer reading could ease inflationary concerns, supporting expectations for Selic stability at 15%, though JP Morgan's caution on services inflation suggests high rates will persist, impacting consumer and borrowing costs.

• 13:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.276B. Measures net foreign capital inflows/outflows.
  

Implication: Strong inflows could reinforce the real's recent climb to 5.297 per dollar, enhancing export competitiveness, while outflows may amplify U.S. sanction risks.

• 5:30 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision: Actual TBD, Consensus 15.00%, Previous 15.00%. Central Bank sets the Selic rate.
  

Implication: Maintaining 15% aligns with JP Morgan's view that the 5.6% unemployment low isn't enough to ease policy due to inflation risks, sustaining high borrowing costs but pressuring growth.
United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)

• 2:00 PM BRT – Fed Interest Rate Decision: Actual TBD, Consensus 4.25%, Previous 4.50%. FOMC sets federal funds rate.
  
• 2:00 PM BRT – FOMC Statement: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Policy announcement details.
  
• 2:00 PM BRT – FOMC Economic Projections: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD (Current 3.9%, 1st Yr 3.6%, 2nd Yr 3.4%, 3rd Yr 3.1%, Longer 3.0%).
  
• 2:30 PM BRT – FOMC Press Conference: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Fed Chair commentary.
  
• 11:30 AM BRT – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.4%, Previous 3.4%. Real-time GDP estimate.
  

Implication: The Fed's expected 25 bps cut (94-96% probability) will drive global capital flows, boosting Brazil's commodity exports if hawkish or pressuring the real if dovish, amid sanction concerns.
Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)

• 2:00 AM BRT – UK CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual 3.8%, Consensus 3.8%, Previous 3.8%. Annual headline inflation.
  
• 5:00 AM BRT – Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.1%, Previous 2.0%. Annual headline CPI.
  
• 5:00 AM BRT – Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.3%, Previous 2.3%. Annual core CPI.
  
• 1:00 PM BRT – German Buba President Nagel Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. ECB policy insights.
  
• All Day – ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. ECB policy signals.
  

Implication: Sticky European inflation could curb demand for Brazil's steel and soybean exports, compounding U.S. tariff pressures, while ECB signals may influence trade dynamics.
Other Countries
Mexico (11th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.00 trillion)

• 7:00 AM BRT – MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 6.49%. Average mortgage rates.
  
• 7:00 AM BRT – MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 9.2%. Weekly mortgage application changes.
  
• 7:00 AM BRT – MBA Purchase Index: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 169.1. Purchase-related mortgage activity.
  
• 7:00 AM BRT – Mortgage Market Index: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 297.7. Overall mortgage market activity.
  
• 7:00 AM BRT – Mortgage Refinance Index: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1,012.4. Refinancing trends.
  
• 8:30 AM BRT – Building Permits (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -2.2%. New construction approvals.
  
• 8:30 AM BRT – Building Permits (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.370M, Previous 1.362M. Total permits.
  
• 8:30 AM BRT – Housing Starts (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 5.2%. Housing construction changes.
  
• 8:30 AM BRT – Housing Starts (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.370M, Previous 1.428M. Total housing starts.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – Crude Oil Inventories: Actual TBD, Consensus 1.400M, Previous 3.939M. Weekly oil stockpile changes.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – Gasoline Inventories: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.458M. Gasoline stock levels.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 4.715M. Distillate inventories.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – Crude Oil Imports: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.668M. Oil import changes.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.365M. Oklahoma hub storage.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – Distillate Fuel Production: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.024M. Distillate output.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – Gasoline Production: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.285M. Gasoline output.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.051M. Refinery input changes.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.6%. Refinery capacity use.
  

Implication: U.S.-linked housing and oil data will influence Mexico's peso-real pair and regional trade, with strong figures supporting Brazil's commodity exports and Mercosur stability.
Canada

• 9:45 AM BRT – BoC Interest Rate Decision: Actual TBD, Consensus 2.50%, Previous 2.75%. Bank of Canada sets key rate.
  

Implication: An expected 25 bps cut could boost commodity demand, supporting Brazil's oil and agricultural exports.
China (2nd Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$19.00 trillion)

• 8:00 AM BRT – FDI (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -13.40%. Foreign direct investment inflows.
  

Implication: Declining FDI could weaken demand for Brazil's diversified exports to China, pressuring agribusiness.
Japan (3rd Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$4.10 trillion)

• 7:50 PM BRT – Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus -1.8%, Previous 3.0%. Core orders excluding ships/electric.
  

Implication: Softer orders may reduce demand for Brazil's steel and agricultural exports.
Australia

• 8:30 PM BRT – Employment Change (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 21.2K, Previous 24.5K. Monthly job additions.
  

Implication: Steady job growth could support Asia-Pacific commodity demand, aiding Brazil's agricultural exports.
South Africa

• 4:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.5%. Annual CPI.
  

Implication: Inflation trends may reflect emerging market commodity demand, indirectly affecting Brazil's exports.
India

• 7:30 AM BRT – M3 Money Supply: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 9.8%. Broad money growth.
  

Implication: Expansion could boost Asian demand for Brazil's agricultural goods.
New Zealand

• 6:45 PM BRT – GDP (QoQ) (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus -0.3%, Previous 0.8%. Quarterly GDP growth.
  

Implication: A contraction could temper regional trade, impacting Brazil's exports.
Switzerland

• 3:00 AM BRT – SECO Economic Forecasts: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Government economic projections.
  

Implication: Forecasts may influence European sentiment, indirectly affecting Brazil's trade.

Why These Events Matter: Brazil's IGP-10, FX flows, and Selic decision will shape inflation and policy outlooks amid the 5.6% unemployment low and JP Morgan's caution on persistent services inflation, critical for consumer resilience at 15% rates.

The U.S. Fed's rate decision and projections will drive global capital flows, impacting Brazil's commodity exports. European CPI and Canada's BoC decision will influence trade demand, while key regional data supports Brazil's export diversification against U.S. sanctions and tariff risks.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa index closed at 144,061.74 points on September 16, 2025, up 0.36%, hitting a record high with an intraday peak of 144,584.10 points.

Robust trading volume was driven by the unemployment rate dropping to 5.6% in July-the lowest since 2015-with 102.4 million employed, reflecting strength in services, technology, and logistics, and anticipation of a U.S. Federal Reserve 25 bps rate cut (96% probability) on September 17.

The interest rate differential (Brazil's 15% Selic vs. U.S. expected 4.25%) attracted international flows, boosting firms' capital access.

Technicals show support at 143,500-144,000 and resistance at 145,000, with the Ibovespa above 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling momentum tied to jobs and fiscal discipline.

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U.S. Markets Yesterday
The Dow Jones fell 0.3% (down 125 points), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each dropped 0.1%, retreating from record highs, as investors awaited the Fed 's rate decision.

August retail sales rose 0.6%, beating forecasts of 0.2-0.4%, but caution prevailed. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reflected uncertainty ahead of the September 17 FOMC meeting, with a 25 bps rate cut (to 4.25-4.50%) widely expected (94-96% probability).

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Mexico's Market Yesterday
Mexico's S&P/BMV IPC index rose 0.49% to 62,102 points, nearing its September high of 62,252, supported by a strong peso at 18.29 per dollar and institutional buying.

Optimism about U.S. demand and stable monetary policy drove gains, though trading was quieter ahead of the Fed's decision.

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Argentina's Market Yesterday
The S&P Merval paused, with leaders outperforming laggards, as the peso stabilized at ARS 1,450 per dollar (blue at 1,410), with country risk at 950 basis points. Financial and energy stocks diverged, with technicals indicating neutral conditions.

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Colombia's Market Yesterday
The COLCAP index dipped slightly to 1,884.10 amid dollar weakness, supported by a stable peso at 3,900 per dollar and U.S. rate cut expectations.

Institutional flows into energy and financials cushioned losses, with inflation at 5.0% suggesting steady rates. Technicals point to a potential recovery to 1,900.

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Chile's Market Yesterday
The IPSA paused after a rally, lifted by dollar weakness strengthening the peso to 975 per dollar. Mining giants held steady despite flat copper prices at $4.50/lb, with markets eyeing a potential 25 bps rate cut to 4.25%. RSI at 45 signals neutral momentum.

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Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real strengthened to 5.297 per dollar on September 16, 2025, its strongest since June 2024, driven by a weaker DXY (down 0.3% to 96.85), U.S. rate cut expectations, and the unemployment drop attracting flows.

The Central Bank plans to roll over 40,000 FX swaps to ensure stability amid U.S. sanction risks. Technicals show RSI at 47, with support at 5.38 and resistance at 5.43. Export diversification to China and Argentina supports resilience.

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Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin held support at $111,500 on September 16, 2025, up 0.5%, with a $3.92 trillion market cap and 57% dominance. U.S. rate cut anticipation supported sentiment, though Brazil's fintech sector remains cautious due to domestic slowdown.

Technicals show Bitcoin range-bound between $111,000–$112,500, with RSI at 49. The Fed's decision will influence flows.

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Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil's stock market hit an all-time high on September 16, 2025, with the Ibovespa closing at 144,061.74 points, up 0.36%, and peaking at 144,584.10, driven by a 5.6% unemployment rate-the lowest since 2015-and a strong real at 5.297 per dollar, bolstered by dollar weakness and U.S. rate cut expectations.

Services, technology, and logistics sectors led gains, reflecting robust job growth, while retail and industry lagged, with retail sales down 0.3% and services up 0.3%.

The interest rate differential (Brazil's 15% Selic vs. U.S. expected 4.25%) attracts international capital, supporting firms' expansion, though JP Morgan warns persistent services inflation limits Selic cut prospects, pressuring growth.

Today's IGP-10 (7:00 AM BRT), U.S. Fed decision (2:00 PM BRT), and Eurozone CPI (5:00 AM BRT) will shape consumer, technology, and commodity sector outlooks, with global easing potentially boosting capital access but domestic slowdown risks lingering.
Key Developments
Economic Slowdown: The IBC-Br index's 0.5% drop in July, worse than the expected 0.2%, signals a third consecutive monthly decline, easing inflation but raising growth concerns.

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Banking Sector Resilience: Brazil's adoption of Europe's banking shield strategy protects financial institutions from U.S. sanctions, ensuring stability amid geopolitical tensions.

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Export Diversification: Increased trade with China and Argentina offsets U.S. export declines, supporting agribusiness and energy sectors.

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