Polar Geoengineering Fails Feasibility Tests, Experts Warn - Arabian Post

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An international team of climate scientists has assessed five leading polar geoengineering proposals and found them unworkable, dangerous, and likely to undermine efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The study, published in Frontiers in Science, evaluated the methods' viability across criteria including effectiveness, cost, scale, environmental risk, and governance.

The five geoengineering ideas under scrutiny are: stratospheric aerosol injection; sea curtains or walls to block warm water flows; sea ice management; basal water removal beneath glaciers; and ocean fertilisation to boost carbon sequestration.

None of these approaches passed the test. Researchers found that they lack real-world trial data; field experiments have been either absent, extremely limited, or restricted to modelling. For example, sea curtains and aerosol injection are mostly computer simulations, while large-scale deployment of seawater-pumping devices for ice thickening or glass-bead albedo enhancement faces massive logistical challenges in the harsh polar environment.

Costs are prohibitive. The estimated expense of setting up and maintaining any of these geoengineering schemes runs into tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. Moreover, the time required to deploy them at scale is incompatible with the urgency imposed by the accelerating warming of polar regions. These areas are experiencing temperature rise well above global averages, which is already triggering widespread ice loss, permafrost thaw, and severe ecosystem disruption.

Environmental dangers are substantial. The glass beads concept, for instance, may harm marine organisms and ecosystems, while altering nutrient cycles. Sea curtains could interfere with ocean circulation, impacting marine life and current distribution. Basal water removal could destabilise ice sheets elsewhere. Aerosol injections pose risks of unintended effects, including during winter darkness and depending on atmospheric dynamics.

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Governance and ethical concerns loom large. The polar regions span multiple national jurisdictions, and many methods would cross sovereign boundaries-raising legal complications. Indigenous communities, whose lives and livelihoods depend on intact polar ecosystems, may be affected without sufficient consultation or consent. There are no established governance frameworks prepared to regulate or approve large-scale geoengineering deployment in these sensitive areas.

The authors argue that geoengineering has a high risk of becoming a distraction. When public and private energy is invested in speculative or unproven technological fixes, the pressure to pursue well-known, effective mitigation-such as reducing reliance on fossil fuels, increasing renewable energy deployment, and improving energy efficiency-may soften. Mitigation strategies already in place have far more robust empirical grounding and promise clearer returns for climate stability and polar protection.

Critics of the assessment caution that it emphasises downsides more than potential benefits. Some argue that in extremis, geoengineering might serve as a“tool of last resort,” complementing emissions cuts rather than replacing them. They suggest that with improved modelling and pilot projects, certain methods could yield breakthroughs. But the study's authors respond that the costs, ethical risks, and likelihood of unintended consequences make any large-scale deployment in polar regions impractical on the timescale required to avoid tipping points.

The study's timing coincides with alarming climate indicators: Arctic warming has progressed at about three times the global rate; Antarctic ice shelves have shown accelerating retreat; and overall ice loss is contributing to rising sea levels and disrupting global ocean circulation. Such trends intensify the scrutiny of any intervention in polar regions.

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