USD/ZAR Analysis 08/09: Reactive Movement (Chart)

(MENAFN- Daily Forex) The USD/ZAR is near the 17.51750 vicinity as of this writing, this low is within sight of Friday's surge to a depth of nearly 17.50150 which was flirted with in the wake of the weaker than expected U.S jobs numbers. Once again financial institutions have proven they are less interested in domestic South African fiscal turbulence and prefer to correlate the USD/ZAR with the broad Forex market.

Last Thursday the USD/ZAR was above the 17.81000 ratio momentarily as nervousness crept into Forex. Large players likely positioned for the Non-Farm Employment Change data from the States which was going to be published on Friday. Perhaps the higher price action in the USD/ZAR and the relatively stronger USD seen over the near-term the middle of last week was because financial institutions believed if the U.S jobs numbers would meet expectation or be stronger than expected. If this happened the Fed could remain cautious regarding their rhetoric on September the 17th.

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However, clearly the surprisingly weaker outcome from the hiring results in the U.S has put the Fed into a likely scenario in which they will have to cut the Federal Funds Rate in the middle of September, and also suggest another hike may have to come in October. This has created the selling of the USD which has seen a correlation via the USD/ZAR moving lower since Friday.

The spread in the USD/ZAR is wide early this morning, day traders need to stay alert. The USD/ZAR is traversing near interesting support levels. The 17.50000 may look like a target for traders, particularly because price action has challenged this ratio rather consistently since the first week of July. Reversals higher though have also been created when the 17.50000 vicinity has been touched, so traders should be careful Sentiment and the USD/ZAR

While the USD/ZAR has seen values below the 17.50000 on occasion over the past couple of months, the ability to move higher is likely going to cause some nervousness among financial institutions and also speculators until there is further proof for more lows. Last Friday's poor jobs numbers from the U.S however might have been enough to cause a rethinking of mid-term sentiment in Forex, a shifting of sentiment.

If financial institutions start to consider more USD centric weakness, then the USD/ZAR would likely start to see additional lows develop.
But the U.S Federal Reserve is not scheduled to make their interest rate decision until the 17th of September, meaning choppiness will likely be seen as big players try to find equilibrium until that date.
Conservative traders may want to attempt selling the USD/ZAR when perceived resistance levels are tested above.
The 17.60000 level will be intriguing to monitor for its durability as a potential high.

EURUSD Chart by TradingViewUSD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 17.57500

Current Support: 17.51200

High Target: 17.62400

Low Target: 17.48800

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