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As US leverage over India diminishes amid bilateral tensions, India has gained greater autonomy in its foreign policy choices, including its relationship with Israel. This reduced American influence paradoxically provides India with more space to deepen ties with Israel without concerns about US sensitivities regarding Middle Eastern issues.

This approach allows New Delhi to maintain and expand relationships with various partners, including Israel, without being constrained by American preferences or regional alliance structures. The strained US-India relationship may actually accelerate this trend toward independent decision-making.

With US-India defense cooperation potentially affected by broader bilateral tensions, India may increasingly look to Israel as an alternative source of advanced military technology. Israel, eager to diversify its relationships amid its own regional challenges, sees India as a crucial non-aligned partner that can provide both markets and strategic depth.

At the same time, Israel and India are actively pursuing a bilateral trade agreement in 2025, marking an opportunity to reduce dependence on traditional Western markets and create new avenues for technological and economic cooperation.

The Iran factor

One of the most complex aspects of this evolving dynamic involves Iran. India maintains important economic interests in Iran, particularly regarding the Chabahar Port project, which serves as a gateway to Central Asia. This creates a delicate balancing act, as India seeks to maintain strong ties with both Israel and Iran despite their adversarial relationship.

The US sanctions regime on Iran has historically complicated this balance, but as US-India relations deteriorate, India may feel less constrained by American pressure regarding its Iran policy. This could potentially allow for more independent decision-making regarding both Iran and Israel.

India's growing ties with Israel, occurring amid tensions with the US, may alter regional perceptions in the Middle East. Arab nations and Iran may view India's position differently if it appears less aligned with American interests, potentially opening new diplomatic opportunities or creating fresh complications.

Israel's desire to strengthen ties with India is also driven by its need to reduce dependence on China, which has created security vulnerabilities for Tel Aviv. As US-China competition intensifies and US-India relations decline, Israel sees India as a crucial alternative partner in both economic and strategic terms.

India's more independent stance was evident when it refused to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's condemnation of Israeli actions against Iran. This demonstrates how deteriorating US-India relations may actually provide India with more flexibility to support Israeli positions in international forums.

Future trajectories

The combination of US-India tensions and shared strategic interests is likely to drive deeper India-Israel cooperation. Areas such as cybersecurity, space technology, agricultural innovation and water management present significant opportunities for expanded partnerships.

Interestingly, before bilateral tensions hit their recent nadir, Trump had promoted a US-India economic corridor via Israel, suggesting that all three nations recognize the potential mutual benefits from trilateral cooperation in specific sectors.