Ultratech, Shree Cement Weak Near-Term, Dalmia, ACC Show Bullish Setups: SEBI Analyst Rajneesh Sharma

India's cement industry, the world's second-largest, with over 8% of global production, is poised for another year of expansion.

Output climbed past 453 million metric tons in FY25 and is expected to top 480 million metric tons in FY26, driven by demand from housing, infrastructure, and industry. 

With a market value exceeding ₹1.5 lakh crore, the industry is benefiting from rising public and private investment.

Government Push And Rising Demand

SEBI-registered analyst Rajneesh Sharma noted that infrastructure spending has been a key driver. 

The Union Budget 2025 earmarked ₹11.1 lakh crore for infrastructure, a 12.3% increase year-on-year, to fuel projects under PM Gati Shakti, housing under PMAY, and continued highway expansion. 

A revival in Tier 2 and 3 city real estate is also aiding cement volumes. In May, cement dispatches increased by 9% from the previous year, while average bag prices rose 8% to ₹360.

Capacity Expansions Across Players

On the supply side, Sharma pointed to capacity additions from industry leaders. UltraTech Cement plans to add 22.6 MTPA over two years to consolidate its lead, while Adani Group's Ambuja and ACC aim for a combined 100 MTPA by FY26. 

Dalmia Bharat continues to scale through acquisitions and plant upgrades in eastern India. 

Shree Cement is investing ₹3,500 crore in green energy and clinker projects. Mid-sized players, such as JK Cement, Prism Johnson, and Udaipur Cement, are also upgrading their capacity.

Technical Picture Of 26 Stocks

Sharma's technical review flagged divergent trends across 26 cement stocks. 

UltraTech and Shree Cement showed signs of near-term weakness with bearish divergences and RSI breakdowns, alongside similar setups in JK Cement, Ramco, Nuvoco, Star Cement, and Deccan Cements. 

Stocks like Ambuja Cements, India Cements, Birla Corp, JK Lakshmi, NCL Industries, Mangalam Cement, KCP, and Orient Cement are consolidating or at resistance levels, requiring caution.

By contrast, ACC, Dalmia Bharat, Prism Johnson, Sagar Cements, Udaipur Cement, Sanghi Industries, Heidelberg Cement, Shree Digvijay, and Saurashtra Cement were highlighted as bullish setups, with patterns such as cup-and-handle and triangle breakouts supported by volume and momentum. 

JSW Cement, which was recently listed, remains on watch due to the lack of historical chart data.

Analyst View

Sharma said that while market leaders like UltraTech and Shree Cement look weak in the near term, the sector's overall structure remains strong. 

Mid-caps such as Dalmia Bharat, ACC, Prism, Sagar, and Udaipur are driving the technical momentum. 

He advised investors to avoid chasing overbought names and focus on clean breakout structures backed by volume. Long-term investors can accumulate selectively, while traders should stay cautious near resistance levels.

According to Sharma, the next rally in cement could be structural rather than speculative, making patience as important as momentum in this sector.

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