A Quiet Path To Peace In The South China Sea

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They need FONOPS to safeguard open sea lanes vital for trade, but they also fear being drawn into the spirals of confrontation between Washington and Beijing.

Here lies the essence of ASEAN's quandary: ensuring that global rules of navigation remain intact without allowing external powers to militarize its backyard.

Quiescent, strategic diplomacy

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has rightly urged that ASEAN must pursue what he calls a“quiet order”-diplomacy that is quiescent, not noisy; discreet, not theatrical.

In the South China Sea, loud diplomacy often escalates tensions rather than defuses them. Statements that seek to score political points, or military maneuvers broadcast for maximum publicity, tend to harden positions rather than soften them.

That said, quiescent diplomacy does not mean passivity. It is an active strategy of restraint, dialogue, and behind-the-scenes problem-solving.

It allows for necessary activities-patrols, exercises, even FONOPS-to proceed without becoming political spectacles. It also gives room for China and the United States to engage each other without turning ASEAN waters into stages for their rivalry.

Australia and Japan, both increasingly active in regional security, would do well to adopt this approach. Their interests in open seas and stable trade are legitimate.

But by keeping their activities low-key and non-confrontational, they can reassure ASEAN states that their presence is supportive rather than escalatory.

Reframing military exercises

Traditionally, military exercises at sea have been cast in the language of deterrence. Yet deterrence can easily slide into provocation, especially when it takes place near disputed waters.

ASEAN must therefore find ways to reframe these exercises so that they contribute to security without heightening tensions.

Indonesia offers an instructive model. Its naval exercises often incorporate humanitarian dimensions-disaster relief simulations, search and rescue drills and medical evacuation scenarios.

These activities are not only less confrontational but also deeply relevant in a region prone to typhoons, earthquakes, and tsunamis.

A naval fleet preparing to save lives, rather than just project power, demonstrates tangible value to the public and fosters habits of cooperation even among rival navies.

If ASEAN could institutionalize such humanitarian exercises, it would transform the narrative of naval presence. Exercises would still hone skills and display readiness, but they would also build trust and confidence across divides.

Humanitarian drills provide a rare platform for Chinese, American, and ASEAN naval personnel to interact in non-hostile settings-a confidence-building measure often missing in the security domain.

Great power playground

The South China Sea is more than a theater of rivalry. It is the artery through which one-third of global trade flows.

Energy supplies from the Middle East to Northeast Asia pass through its waters, as do critical components in the global supply chain.

For ASEAN, the stakes are existential. Stability in the South China Sea underpins not just sovereignty but economic survival.

This makes ASEAN centrality not an abstract diplomatic slogan but a structural necessity. Without ASEAN as a convener, the South China Sea risks becoming a playground for external powers.

ASEAN's role must be to insist on inclusive, rule-based management of disputes while ensuring its member states do not become pawns in a wider geopolitical contest.

The challenge now is to convert these principles into practice. A binding Code of Conduct is the first step, but it must be complemented by habits of quiet diplomacy and humanitarian cooperation.