Turkey's Hypersonic Ups Middle East Arms Race Ante

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To fast-track development, Eksi and Azman note that Turkey may modify the existing Tayfun short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) into a hypersonic platform, significantly reducing production time. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) further note that Turkey plans to extend the Tayfun's range to 1,000 kilometers, marking an evolutionary path from tactical to theater-range systems.

The Tayfun may also tie into Turkey's broader strategy for Middle East power projection. John Sheldon writes in a December 2024 report for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) that regional states are increasingly adopting long-range ballistic and cruise missiles as cost-effective alternatives to traditional airpower, allowing for precision strikes without risking pilots or expensive platforms.

He notes that these systems offer both state and non-state actors the means to influence adversary behavior through deterrence and coercion and provide operational flexibility in both conventional and hybrid conflicts.

Jeffrey Lewis underscores this point in an October 2021 NTI article , noting that 11 countries in the region-among them Bahrain, Iran, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen, the UAE, and Turkey-possess long-range missiles at or above the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) Category I threshold.

He adds that six of these nations have or are developing indigenous manufacturing capabilities, signaling a broader shift toward domestic arms production and strategic autonomy.

This evolving arsenal plays directly into Turkey's regional strategy. Emadeddin Badi and Abdullah al-Jabassini argue in a January 2025 Atlantic Council article that Turkey's simultaneous military interventions in Syria and Libya reveal an assertive Mediterranean strategy aimed at reshaping regional balances through force projection, maritime maneuvering and diplomatic leverage.

They observe that this dual-theater engagement highlights a vision of an interconnected Mediterranean sphere but warn that it exposes Turkey to overextension and backlash.

Notably, they add that Israel views Turkey's growing footprint in Syria as a direct threat, prompting intensified airstrikes to curb Turkish influence. They write that while Turkey's strategy-blending military power with diplomacy and economic tools-has yielded short-term gains, it rests on fragile foundations.

They further note that regional volatility and pushback from powers like Russia and Israel continue to test the limits of Turkish ambitions.

Such developments carry broader regional implications. Jean-Loup Samaan warns in a June 2022 Trends Advisory Research article that the proliferation of hypersonic weapons heightens the risk of instability for states like Turkey.

He notes that even with high-end systems like Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), the Middle East remains vulnerable to missile saturation, and hypersonics could further widen these gaps.

For Turkey, a NATO member with growing regional entanglements, Samaan argues that the introduction of such weapons could deepen strategic asymmetries, particularly vis-a-vis Iran and Russia.

He cautions that Iranian acquisition of hypersonic capabilities-primarily through collaboration with Russia or China-could upend deterrence dynamics across the Eastern Mediterranean.

While Samaan writes that hypersonics may not fundamentally revolutionize warfare, they complicate threat assessments and strategic planning, especially for middle powers.