Australia Braces for Population Decline Amid Low Birth Rates

(MENAFN) Australia is confronting the possibility of a shrinking population as death rates could surpass births, driven by persistently low fertility levels—a trend that threatens the nation's workforce and economic stability over the long term, a recent report warns.

New analysis from KPMG, a prominent financial and investment advisory firm, reveals that although the number of births in Australia rose slightly in 2024 compared to the previous year, it remains significantly below the pre-pandemic figures, according to a local broadcaster.

This demographic shift is ushering Australia into an era of population aging, characterized by a growing elderly population, a shrinking proportion of working-age individuals, and mounting strain on healthcare and social services.

Currently, Australia's fertility rate sits at 1.51 in 2024, far below the 2.1 children per woman threshold required to maintain population size. Last year, the country saw 292,500 births, an increase from 285,000 in 2023, yet these numbers still lag behind the annual birth totals exceeding 300,000 recorded between 2013 and 2019.

The analysis highlights a sharper decline in birth rates in urban centers compared to regional areas, with births in Australia's capital cities dropping by 6.5% between 2019 and 2024. Rising living expenses and financial pressures, especially in major metropolitan areas, are significant contributors to this downward trend.

Liz Allen, a demographer and social policy expert, noted that Australia's fertility rate has been steadily declining below replacement levels since the 1970s and is now approaching what she describes as "critical territory."

Allen further cautioned that by the mid-2050s, Australia might see deaths outnumber births, making population decline a "real prospect." This demographic shift could reduce the size of the labor force responsible for paying taxes and supporting public services, thereby increasing pressure on healthcare infrastructure and government programs.

Australia is not alone in grappling with aging populations. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported in 2024 that fertility rates across all member countries have plummeted from 3.3 in 1960 to 1.5 in 2022. Among these, South Korea registered the lowest fertility rate globally in 2023, averaging just 0.7 children per woman.

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