Poll Reveals Japan’s Ruling Coalition May Lose Upper House Grip

(MENAFN) Japan’s governing alliance—comprised of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito—is poised to lose its majority in the House of Councillors following Sunday’s election, according to multiple media projections.

Voting concluded at 8 p.m. local time for the upper house contest, which determined the fate of half the chamber’s seats. A Japanese broadcaster, projected that the ruling parties are unlikely to retain control, based on early exit poll data.

To maintain their hold on the 248-member upper house, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s LDP and Komeito need to win a minimum of 50 out of the 125 seats contested in this election. However, the broadcaster estimates suggest the coalition may secure between 32 and 51 seats—placing their majority in jeopardy.

On the opposition front, the largest Constitutional Democratic Party is expected to gain additional seats, while both the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito are projected to make substantial advances, according to the broadcaster.

An exit poll by media echoed similar findings, indicating the ruling bloc is struggling to maintain its position in the upper chamber of the National Diet.

Currently, the LDP and Komeito control 75 seats not up for re-election. Should they fail to obtain at least 50 seats this round, it would trigger a political crisis, as Prime Minister Ishiba would need to negotiate support from opposition factions to pass legislation, media reported.

Avoiding definitive remarks during a televised interview, LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama stated, “vote counts are still ongoing and I would like to refrain from commenting on the nature of responsibility at this time.”

This looming upper house setback comes after a significant blow in the October 2024 general election, when the ruling coalition lost its majority in the more influential House of Representatives. That defeat forced Ishiba to form Japan’s first minority government in over 30 years.

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