The Twelve-Day War And Its Repercussions For Sudan

Portsudan (Sudanow) - Although the war that erupted between Iran and Israel lasted no more than two weeks, its international ramifications and aftermath are significant. For the regional countries and the meeting point of the three continents (Asia, Europe, and Africa), the impact is even more profound and will endure for decades. Sudan is naturally no exception and has not escaped these largely negative effects.
The confrontation between Iran and Israel has triggered a tsunami of economic pressures on global energy, trade, and growth, with more serious and severe consequences if the war were to expand.
Strategic analyst and security expert Lieutenant General Hanafi Abdallah began his statement to Sudanow Magazine by saying: "This war has effects on the entire world, and Sudan is a part of that world. Global oil prices rose by about (4-10%) in the early days of the escalation," amidst concerns about potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil supplies pass. He explained that this concern reflects on Sudan's import movements, as most imports come from Asia and pass through the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, which means an increase in their import prices.
The strategic analyst and security expert also pointed out that the rising prices of petroleum products and energy, which are imported under Sudan's current circumstances, directly contribute to increased inflation (imported inflation). This leads to a deterioration in the Sudanese pound's exchange rate against foreign currencies, in addition to a general increase in import costs due to higher insurance premiums from insurance companies and increased expenses in the maritime shipping sector, negatively impacting foreign trade. Furthermore, there's a disruption in the supply chains for goods from East Asia and the Gulf.
Lieutenant General Hanafi Abdallah stated: "Fortunately for Sudan, the worst-case scenario, which is the expansion and prolongation of the war, has not yet occurred," though he did not rule out the situation erupting at any moment. He emphasized that if this were to happen, it would be more negatively and directly affect reconstruction efforts through increased costs and a slower reconstruction process, if not a complete halt, due to the unavailability of a large percentage of strategic goods such as oil and its derivatives, and many production inputs essential for various vital goods in the local market.
He also indicated another direct negative impact on Sudan's trade balance. Sudanese exports (despite their scarcity due to the war) have diminished opportunities to compete in global markets, either due to the presence of other suppliers or alternatives for those exports among importers of Sudanese products. It is well-known in economic terms that escalating energy prices and strategic commodity imports restrict Sudan's export opportunities in global markets.
The strategic analyst mentioned that "if there is a silver lining to this war, it is the rise in global gold prices, as gold is considered the most important safe economic haven during war." Sudan is a significant producer of gold in Africa, with considerable quantities, and could reap substantial revenues if this resource is managed effectively.
Lieutenant General Hanafi Abdallah called for dealing with this war and its consequences with strategic awareness, balancing wise neutrality with the protection of internal interests. He justified this by stating that Sudan, exhausted by the internal war it is waging against the terrorist Dagalo militias, primarily needs to complete the liberation of what the rebellious militia has seized. Secondly, Sudan needs internal peace to fortify itself against the repercussions of the Iran-Israel war (the external war), for security begins from within, and sovereignty is not preserved if the doors are wide open to outsiders, according to Lieutenant General Hanafi Abdallah.
Regarding his assessment of Israeli and Iranian forces, the strategic analyst said: "Through a general reading of the current balance of power between Israel and Iran, it is known that Israel possesses advanced military capabilities, including an undeclared nuclear arsenal and sophisticated air defense technology such as the 'Iron Dome,' in addition to high offensive capability allowing precise targeting of vital sites within Iran. In contrast, Iran has a significant military force consisting of a large missile arsenal and various drones, the Revolutionary Guard, regional militias, and an advanced nuclear program. However, this force faces limitations due to international sanctions and economic and political pressures."
Regarding Israel's achievements, the security expert clarified that Israel operates within a clear set of objectives: disrupting the Iranian nuclear program. Indeed, nuclear centers were bombed, though the clarity of the vision regarding the impact and results of the bombing remains unclear, with indications that Iran had evacuated those centers beforehand. Additionally, Israel aims to sever Tehran's regional support network without entering a comprehensive, destructive war that could affect regional stability.
As for the most significant gains achieved by Iran, Lieutenant General Hanafi Abdallah said: "Iran has reinvented itself, reminded Iranians of Iran's national and religious importance simultaneously, created a kind of internal cohesion, and gave a significant boost to national identity. Even opposition forces presented an important stance, and this in itself is the most important victory the Supreme Leader seeks."

Lieutenant General Hanafi Abdallah stated: "Regardless of the damage to the nuclear program and the significant losses among military leaders and the attrition suffered by its missile force, the important thing is that Iran is still able to stand on its feet." He added that regardless of whether the regime emerged strong or weak from this war, it relatively succeeded in restoring its political legitimacy, which had eroded domestically due to continuous wars and sanctions.
Regarding the most important outcomes of the twelve-day war, the security analyst and strategic expert stated: "The expectations of a comprehensive war were dispelled." However, he added: "It is possible for varied Israeli strikes on Iran and traditional counter-responses to continue." He did not rule out the possibility that the Western community could reformulate an agreement that preserves Iran's position regarding peaceful nuclear development. In fact, this would be the most appropriate approach, despite its difficulty due to the Iranian condition that Israeli nuclear development also be monitored.
However, if the Iranian-Israeli war were to renew and expand, it could turn into a regional earthquake, and no one would escape its repercussions at that time, making Sudan's options very limited, if not entirely non-existent.

MENAFN06072025005684012485ID1109765758