China Braces for Oil Crisis as Israel-Iran Tensions Rise

(MENAFN) China could experience significant oil supply disruptions if tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, as Beijing remains deeply reliant on Middle Eastern crude oil imports. A large portion of these shipments pass through the highly vulnerable Strait of Hormuz, putting China’s energy security at risk.

As the world’s largest oil importer, China produced 4.3 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2024, yet it relied on imports of 11.1 million barrels daily, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Nearly 45% of China’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Iran has issued repeated threats to block this passage in response to Israel’s military actions.

Commodity intelligence firm Kpler notes that China is responsible for 90% of Iran’s oil exports. While official Chinese customs data highlights top suppliers like Russia (2.1 million barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (1.5 million), and Malaysia (1.4 million), Iranian oil is notably absent from the reports due to U.S.-led sanctions.

Estimates suggest China imports over 4.9 million barrels per day from other Middle Eastern nations, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar.

The escalating conflict in the region has raised alarms globally. In its June 2024 report, the International Energy Agency warned that the rising tensions between Israel and Iran pose severe risks to the global oil market.

Israel has launched a series of airstrikes targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure in recent weeks. These attacks have disrupted operations at the South Pars gas field and damaged the Shahran oil depot near Tehran.

Iran, in response, has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz entirely if these strikes continue. The strait is responsible for around 25% of the world’s oil trade and serves as a vital export route for nations like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran to Asian markets.

Analysts caution that even a brief blockage of the strait could send oil prices soaring and severely disrupt global supply chains, exacerbating existing market instability.

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