Israel Is At A Crossroad: Can It Win A War Without US Firepower?

Israel hoped for a knockout blow. It hasn't come yet. With the Fordo nuclear facility still intact and President Trump playing his two week waiting game on military intervention, Israel faces a dangerous dilemma: act alone, or wait - and watch its strategic advantage erode.

Fordo, Iran's most fortified enrichment site, is buried deep inside a mountain and can only be destroyed by U.S.“bunker buster” bombs. Israel doesn't have them - and the U.S. isn't offering. Yet.

A Fortress Too Deep

Fordo isn't just another nuclear site. It's the crown jewel of its uranium enrichment program.

Experts say it's nearly immune to conventional airstrikes. Only the U.S.'s Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) - a 30,000-pound bomb - can barrel through. And Israel doesn't have the arsenal or the delivery mechanisms themselves.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted that Israel might strike Fordo anyway, saying,“We have the power to do so.” He even went on to say“ we don't need anyone's help.” But such wartime pronouncements are merely posturing because if they could do it, they would have already done it.

The Cost of Waiting

Meanwhile, Israel's defenses are under growing pressure.

Its Iron Dome and Arrow systems are intercepting a barrage of Iranian missile attacks, but at a cost. Missile interceptor stockpiles are waning, and the defense system may be forced to prioritize key regions - leaving others vulnerable.

With airspace closed and much of the economy on pause, each day of delay raises the economic toll and public anxiety. The longer the waiting game continues, the riskier it becomes - both strategically and politically.

Regime Change?

This war isn't just about Fordo anymore. Israeli officials are now openly talking about regime change in Tehran and even assassinating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The ultimate result from all of this will be regime change, says Netanyahu.

But here's the catch: regime change, if at all feasible, is a long-term goal - not a short-term strategy. Without a popular uprising or coordinated global pressure, Iran's leadership isn't going anywhere soon.

So what can Israel realistically do?

What Are Israel's Options Without the US?

In the absence of direct American intervention, the path forward for Israel may be a combination of the following:

. Cyber Sabotage: Building on its past successes (like Stuxnet), Israel could launch covert cyberattacks to disrupt Fordo's operations. . Targeted Covert Strikes: Elite commandos or Mossad operations could sabotage key infrastructure - though the risks are extremely high. . Economic Disruption: Hitting Iran's energy, tech, or currency sectors could inflict real pain without a full-scale air war. . Political Pressure in Washington: Israel may use its influence to push the U.S. to act - or at least green-light limited cooperation or weapons transfers.

The Clock Is Ticking

Israel is caught between necessity and limitation.

Wait too long, and it risks weakening defenses, economic fallout, and a loss of public support. Strike too soon with insufficient tools, and it may fail to neutralize Iran's most dangerous asset.

Ending the war without striking Fordo leaves Israel vulnerable to a future nuclear-armed Iran. But pressing forward without U.S. help means gambling with uncertain tools and high stakes.

Israel must now decide: Does it act with what it has - or wait and hope that America shows up before it's too late?

(Dr. Krishna Kishore, based in the United States for the past 30+ years, has supported Asianet News for over 18 years leading all aspects of coverage from the United States. He has covered 5 US Presidential Elections, multiple visits of Indian PM to the US, among other seminal events. He has provided over 3500 news stories to Asianet News viewers around the world)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views or stance of the organization. The organization assumes no responsibility for the content shared.

MENAFN20062025007385015968ID1109702320