Assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader A Recipe For Chaos

This secretive body plays a decisive role in shaping Iran's leadership. The last succession in 1989 , following Ayatollah Khomeini's death, saw senior clerics appoint Ali Khamenei, then a relatively obscure figure , based on his ideological alignment, institutional backing, and Khomeini's endorsement.

Today, the succession landscape is more uncertain. Khamenei, in power for over 35 years, has built a loyal network across the judiciary, military, and clerical ranks. Yet no official successor has been named, and no clear favorite has emerged from the Assembly of Experts. One frequently mentioned figure is his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Though not a grand ayatollah, Mojtaba is believed to exert considerable influence behind the scenes, particularly through ties with the IRGC. His potential rise is widely seen as a dynastic move, conflicting with the anti-monarchical ideals of the 1979 Revolution.

His religious credentials have drawn criticism within the clerical class, and his name alone has provoked resistance among reformist factions.

These succession debates are inseparable from the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Created to protect the Islamic Revolution, the IRGC has transformed into a powerful institution with wide autonomy, often functioning as a state within the state.

It commands over 125,000 active-duty personnel and operates its own intelligence and security apparatus. Economically, it controls major sectors through entities like Khatam al-Anbia and a vast network of affiliated foundations.

In the event of Khamenei's sudden death or assassination, the IRGC is likely to become the central force in maintaining regime stability. Its influence positions it to shape the succession process in favor of preserving the status quo. In recent years, former IRGC commanders have entered both parliament and the cabinet, extending their reach across all arms of government.

What appears as continuity on paper may not hold under the weight of public discontent. Iran is facing its worst economic crisis in over twenty years. Inflation remains above 40% , the rial has sharply devalued and youth unemployment is over 22%.

A 2023 IranPoll survey found that more than 70% of Iranians distrust the government's official narratives, and nearly 60% support fundamental political change. The 2022–23“Woman, Life, Freedom” protests, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, were the largest since the 2009 Green Movement. Though the state quelled them through arrests and executions, the core grievances remain.

If a leadership vacuum emerges, these tensions could resurface. Unlike the relatively controlled transition of 1989, today's Iran is more divided, militarized and economically fragile. A successor without legitimacy or the ability to manage internal factions risks pushing the country into instability.

Historical precedent exists: the fall of Saddam Hussein led to Iraq's institutional collapse, sectarian violence, and the rise of the Islamic State. While Iran has stronger institutions and a longer tradition of centralized rule, it is not immune.

Ethnic minorities such as Kurds, Baluchs, and Azeris are already demanding greater autonomy . A prolonged power crisis could embolden them and fuel violent fragmentation

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It is also likely that, in the absence of a strong leader, Iran's nuclear program would fall increasingly under the control of hardline military figures. This could result in a much more aggressive posture toward the West, rather than a retreat.

In such a scenario, diplomacy would become more difficult, and the potential for regional conflict would grow. Far from ending hostilities, Khamenei's assassination could inflame them beyond Israel's control.

To assume that the death of one man will dismantle an entire regime is a mistake that history has repeatedly exposed. Toppling a figure like Khamenei does not guarantee the emergence of a stable successor, let alone a more moderate or cooperative one.

It risks, instead, the collapse of an entire state apparatus, a power vacuum that could be filled by militia factions, radicalized clerics, or foreign actors. Such instability would have far-reaching consequences, disrupting global oil supplies, jeopardizing critical regional trade corridors and undermining existing nuclear nonproliferation efforts.

If the goal is to eliminate threats, replacing a centralized regime with chaos does the opposite. The Middle East has learned the hard way that toppling leaders is far easier than securing peace in the aftermath.

Rishab Rathi is a research assistant at the Centre of Policy Research and Governance (CPRG), leading the Conflict Studies vertical with a special emphasis on South Asia.

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