No Good Options For Iran In Israel War

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Israeli war aims: destroying Iran's nuke program, regime change

Iran has previously agreed to cap its enrichment at 3.67% under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a nuclear deal between Iran, the US and other global powers agreed to in 2015 (and abandoned by the first Trump administration in 2018). But it has refused to relinquish its right to enrichment altogether.

US President Donald Trump reportedly urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to attack Iran last week, believing he was close to a deal.

But after the attack, Trump ramped up his threats on Iran again, urging it to agree to a deal“before there is nothing left.” He called the Israeli strikes“excellent” and suggested there was“more to come.”

Given this context, it is understandable why Iran does not view the US as an impartial mediator. In response, Iran suspended its negotiations with the US, announcing it would skip the sixth round of talks scheduled for Sunday.

Rather than compelling Iran to agree to a deal, the excessive pressure could risk pushing Iran towards a more extreme stance instead.

While Iranian officials have denied any intention to develop a military nuclear program, they have warned that continued Israeli attacks and US pressure might force Tehran to reconsider as a deterrence mechanism.

Why surrender could spell the regime's end

On several occasions, Trump has insisted he is not seeking“regime change” in Iran. He has repeatedly claimed he wants to see Iran be“successful” – the only requirement is for it to accept a US deal.

However, in Iran's view, the US proposal is not viewed as a peace offer, but as a blueprint for surrender. And the fear is that this would ultimately pave the way for regime change under the guise of diplomacy.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei responded to the latest US proposal by insisting that uranium enrichment remains a“red line” for Iran. Abandoning this right from the Iranian perspective would only embolden its adversaries to escalate their pressure on the regime and make further demands – such as dismantling Iran's missile program.

The fear in Tehran is this could push the country into a defenceless state without a way to deter future Israeli strikes.

Furthermore, capitulating to the US terms could ignite domestic backlash on two fronts: from an already growing opposition movement, and from the regime's base of loyal supporters, who would see any retreat as a betrayal.

In this context, many in Iran's leadership believe that giving in to Trump's terms would not avert regime change – it would hasten it.

What options remain for Iran now?

Caught between escalating pressure and existential threats, Iran finds itself with few viable options other than to project strength. It has already begun to pursue this strategy by launching retaliatory missile strikes at Israeli cities.