Thai-Cambodia Clash Through A US Vs China Lens

“The reaction of the Cambodian public to this situation has surprised me, in how it has caused a large upswell in patriotic sentiment and pro-government support, even from a lot of people I know to be very skeptical of the government,” Craig Etcheson, an author and researcher about Cambodia, said in an interview.

“In that sense, it has been very good for the CPP,” Etcheson said, referring to the long-ruling, monopolistic Cambodian Peoples' Party.

Coincidentally, miles away, China was concluding its two-week-long Golden Dragon military exercises with Cambodia, which included 2,000 combined personnel, fearsome galloping“robot combat dogs” with assault rifles mounted on their backs, plus helicopters, vehicle-mounted rockets, mortars, and other weaponry.

The Golden Dragon drills do not“threaten or harm any country,” said Cambodia's Defense Ministry spokesman General Chhum Socheat.

China is Cambodia's biggest source of weapons and other military needs, including Chinese tanks, armed vehicles and air defense training, but there was no indication of any Chinese involvement in the border confrontation.

China's President Xi Jinping boosted Phnom Penh's faith in more aid and investment from Beijing during his April visit to Cambodia.

In May, US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs John Noh met Cambodia's Defense Minister and Secretary of State Lieutenant General Rath Dararoth to discuss security and military relations.

“Both leaders look forward to a US Navy ship visit, and maritime training, to occur at Ream Naval Base later this year, as well as travel by Secretary Hegseth to visit the US ship while in port at Ream,” the US Defense Department said on May 31.

American officials hope a US ship will be able to dock, for the first time, near Sihanoukville in Cambodia's Ream Naval Base which is undergoing massive upgrades by China as part of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative.

Thailand conducts large-scale military exercises with the Pentagon each year and allows the US Navy docking facilities, including the US 7th Fleet's nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, along its shallow Gulf of Thailand coast, bolstering the US Pacific Fleet in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Thai-Cambodian border clash meanwhile exposed cracks between Thailand's elected, civilian-led government and its cautious relationship with the military.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said she wants a peaceful, behind-the-scenes, negotiated settlement between Bangkok and Phnom Penh, but has not announced its terms. Thailand's military is perceived as bristling against Cambodia.

“The Thai army would prefer a hawkish response,” Paul Chambers, a visiting fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, said in an interview before the border agreement was reached.

“As tensions have risen, alarm has grown. Such alarm could intensify to an extent that it affects Thai civil-military relations,” he said. The mood among the public has risen“from apathetic to increasingly alarmed in both countries,” Chambers added.

Others said the differences between Thailand's government and military were not destabilizing, yet.

“Currently, the Thai military and the civilian government under Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra appear to be aligned in their approach to the border dispute,” Sophal Ear, an associate professor of Southeast Asian and other international relations at Phoenix's Arizona State University, said in an interview.

“Both have expressed a preference for peaceful resolution through existing bilateral mechanisms. However, the military has indicated readiness for a 'high-level operation' if necessary, reflecting a cautious stance amid increased Cambodian military activity near the border,” Sophal Ear said.

Paetongtarn expressed her relationship with the army when she said,“The military understands precisely what is happening on the ground. It is the military's responsibility to evaluate whether the situation has reached a point where confrontation is necessary.

“If not, then engaging prematurely could result in great harm.”

Thailand and Cambodia, meanwhile, cooperate on several vital issues, including trade and security, which may help temper their feud.

Their relations are so tight, for example, that they are jointly accused of helping each other crush political dissidents, according to New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW).

“The Cambodian and Thai governments have engaged in transnational repression – government efforts to silence dissent by committing human rights abuses against their own nationals outside their own territory - through reciprocal arrangements targeting dissidents and opposition figures, colloquially known as a 'swap mart',” HRW said.

“Both governments have facilitated assaults, abductions, enforced disappearances, and the forced return of people to their home countries where their lives or freedom are at risk,” the rights group said in April.

Thailand and Phnom Penh deny violating the law when it comes to deporting people back to each other's country, despite pleas that fleeing political activists be spared.

In 1999, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet was a cadet at the US Military Academy at West Point. It is unknown if that will temper or give confidence to his military dealings with Thailand.

Paetongtarn's father, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, had close fraternal ties with Cambodia's previous prime minister and former Khmer Rouge regiment commander Hun Sen, the father of Prime Minister Hun Manet.

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Those generational links were especially valuable after Thaksin was overthrown in a military coup in 2006, leading to 15 years as a self-exiled fugitive from prison sentences for corruption and other financial crimes.

Those enmeshed personal relationships had recently been blamed by some Thais for weakening Bangkok's negotiating stance in an ongoing dispute with Cambodia over mapping their shared Gulf of Thailand which hosts oil and natural gas extraction platforms.

“Right-wing opponents of the Shinawatras, in particular, are using the issue of Thai-Cambodian border issues to attack the Paetongtarn government,” Chambers said.“This issue could become increasingly productive for the right-wing opposition.”

Sophal Ear said:“Opposition groups in Thailand have criticized the Shinawatra-led government for its handling of the border dispute, accusing it of being too conciliatory towards Cambodia.

“This strategy taps into nationalist sentiments, but risks being counterproductive if perceived as undermining efforts for a peaceful resolution. The [Thai] government's emphasis on diplomacy may appeal to moderates who prioritize stability over confrontation.

“In Cambodia, there is a sense of nationalistic fervor, with support for the government's decision to seek ICJ intervention.

“In Thailand, the public is more divided, some express concern over national sovereignty, while others prioritize economic and political stability,” Sophal Ear said.

Thailand and Cambodia will engage in talks at a June 14 meeting of the Joint Boundary Committee, said Thai Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai.

“The government has made preparations, both the legal aspects and negotiations through mechanisms, along with military preparations on the frontline if that proves necessary,” said the defense minister, who is also a deputy prime minister.

“For those who stir up nationalist sentiments, they should understand that war is best avoided,” Phumtham said.“Don't stir it, or problems will follow.”
Richard S Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia since 1978, and winner of Columbia University's Foreign Correspondents' Award. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books,“Rituals. Killers. Wars. & Sex. - Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & New York” and“Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers & Freaks” are available here .

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