Nifty Metal Index Set To Reach 10,400 As Metals Rally Strengthens: SEBI RA Rajneesh Sharma

The Nifty Metal Index has broken out of a multi-month falling channel, reclaiming key moving averages on the weekly chart, according to SEBI-registered research analyst Rajneesh Sharma.

At the time of writing, the Nifty Metal Index was trading at 9,504.25, up 97.80 points or 1.04% on the day.

According to Sharma, the price is holding well above the previous resistance zone of nearly 9,200–9,300, which is now acting as a support area. 

Immediate resistance lies near 9,510. A strong close above this level could extend the move toward 10,200–10,400. 

Metals are volatile, and historical behavior suggests that temporary consolidations or pullbacks are part of normal trend progression. 

Sharma noted that the current trend remains healthy as long as the index stays above 8,800 on a weekly close.

On the macro front, Sharma said India's steel demand is projected to grow 8–9% in 2025, driven by infrastructure buildout and housing programs. 

He highlighted the government's target to expand steel capacity from 200 Mt to 300 Mt by 2030, though domestic iron ore availability is lagging, implying higher imports. 

Recent policy support, such as scrap import management and safeguard duties, continues to back domestic producers.

Global commodity sentiment shows expectations of a gradual recovery in global metals demand into 2025, particularly as U.S. growth stabilizes and China hints at fresh fiscal easing.

A softer USD has provided tactical support to metals in recent months. 

Sharma said India's unique growth path has made it one of the few markets showing consistent steel output growth since 2019.

The analyst noted risks to monitor, including ongoing U.S.–China trade dynamics, which may create short-term volatility in global metals markets. 

Chinese industrial demand remains mixed, posing a wildcard for global base metals pricing. 

Any resurgence in USD strength or global macro shocks could trigger corrective phases in the index.

Key levels to watch include 9,510, where a clean weekly breakout would strengthen bullish momentum. 

Price holding above 9,200–9,300 consolidates the bullish bias. 

Sharma advised that price action should be monitored if the index pulls back toward 8,800–9,000, as long as macro fundamentals remain stable.

He also recommended monitoring India's infrastructure output trends, global metals demand updates such as China PMI and U.S. infrastructure developments, and USD trends alongside commodity sentiment shifts.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was 'extremely bullish' amid 'extremely high' message volume.

The stock has risen 10% so far in 2025.

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