Superpower Chess: Is India The Next To Be Checkmated?

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In the current period, Russia and China both have displayed boldness. When the US imposed sanctions on Russia, Moscow didn't flinch – it adapted, recalibrated its economy and adjusted its foreign policy to endure Western pressure. China, faced with aggressive tariffs under Trump, responded decisively – retaliating both economically and diplomatically, signaling it wouldn't be bullied into submission.

India, meanwhile, charted a softer course marked by submission. Rather than assert its sovereign interests, it appeared to appease Washington. The Modi government's handling of Trump-era tariffs lacked both conviction and assertiveness. Even the basic level of strategic autonomy seen in 2008 now appears missing. India has shown the world that, despite its size and potential, it remains hesitant when boldness is most needed.

In contrast to Russia and China, India's response to US pressure under Trump was marked by submission rather than strength.

From global power aspirant to client state?

After winning the US presidential election, Trump invited Xi Jinping to his inauguration but snubbed Modi – despite Modi's repeatedly having called him a“close friend.” Modi was eventually invited, in February, but the visit was a low-key, business-first affair, typical of a working visit.

Trump, who often labeled India a“tariff king” and a“trade abuser,” continued his hardline stance. To appease him, the Modi government made several economic concessions ahead of the visit, including slashing customs duties on high-end motorcycles like Harley-Davidson from 50% to 30 %, and reducing average tariffs from 13% to 11%. India also stepped back from its 2024 BRICS push for de-dollarization after Trump threatened penalties.

Despite these overtures, Trump remained focused on narrowing the US trade deficit – claiming it was $100 billion, double the actual figure of $45.7 billion. Modi, notably, did not challenge this exaggeration during their joint press conference. In return, Trump announced expanded military sales, including F-35 jets, and increased oil and gas exports to India.

Yet, the optics quickly soured. Just two days after Modi's U.S. visit, two American military aircraft carrying 22 deported Indians – including women, children, and infants – landed in Amritsar. Images of Indians in chains circulated widely, sparking outrage and highlighting two uncomfortable truths: India's economy is failing to generate sufficient jobs for its youth – 10 million annual new labor market entrants – and Washington offers no special treatment to its so-called allies.

Trump's approach has been transactional and dismissive – imposing tariffs and pressing India on trade and immigration while giving little in return. The US treats India less like a strategic partner and more like a subordinate expected to comply.

India was once seen as a rising global power – rich in democracy, resources and potential to rival China. But under Modi's decade-long leadership its global stature has declined. India's current trajectory, coupled with its international treatment, is beginning to resemble that of nations like Ukraine and Pakistan that struggled to convert their potential into real global influence.

Is India in danger of becoming a failed state ?

A critical aspect of India's fall from grace is the erosion of its democratic foundations. Over the last decade, the Modi government shifted towards authoritarianism. The very thing that made India unique – a vibrant democracy where mistakes could be made and corrected – has been destroyed.

India never was destined to grow as fast as China, but its democratic model allowed for sustainable, steady progress. The strength of India's democracy was in its ability to adapt, to learn from mistakes and to evolve. In the last decade, however, this foundational strength has been compromised. The government's lack of accountability and its increasing centralization of power have stifled the growth of critical institutions.