Zelensky Lacks Feasible Alternative To Taking Trump Resource Deal

Ukraine kinda already has such Article 5-like guarantees from the US and other major NATO countries per the bilateral pacts that it clinched with them all throughout last year as explained here , but this proposed arrangement gives the US tangible stakes in deterring or immediately stopping hostilities.

The trade-off, though, is that Ukraine must sacrifice part of its economic sovereignty, which is politically uncomfortable since Zelensky told his compatriots that they're fighting to preserve its full sovereignty.

If Zelensky were to agree to Trump's lopsided resource deal, then the optics of any ceasefire , armistice, or peace treaty would pair with de facto global recognition of Russian control over the fifth of Ukraine's pre-2014 territory that Kiev still claims as its own to craft the perception of a joint asymmetrical partition.

Not only might Zelensky's political career end if Ukraine were then forced to hold truly free and fair elections , but his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians' eyes as this century's top“freedom fighter” would also be shattered.

He doesn't have any feasible alternative, though, since going behind Trump's back to reach a comparatively better deal with the Brits and/or Europeans wouldn't result in the“security guarantees” that he's convinced himself that Ukraine needs in order to compromise with Russia.

No one other than the US has any chance of militarily taking on Russia, let alone the political will – and, not to mention, solely over their investments in a war-torn third country whose resource wealth is reportedly questionable .

If Zelensky should opt for more dillydallying, then Trump might once again temporarily suspend military and intelligence aid to Ukraine as leverage while tacking on even more punitive terms as revenge.

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The conflict with Russia would also naturally continue, thus making it impossible for Ukraine to develop its resource industry and related infrastructure even if it reached a deal with someone else.

The longer the conflict lasts, the greater the likelihood that Russia will destroy more of those same assets, too.

But if Zelensky accepts the latest deal on offer, then he'll obtain the“security guarantees” that he's looking for – thus making him more likely to accept a ceasefire and then possibly leading to Trump putting further pressure on Putin to follow suit such as imposing strict secondary sanctions on Russian oil clients.

Zelensky would sacrifice his political career, his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians' eyes, and part of his country's economic sovereignty, but he'd avert a much worse scenario than if he rejected this deal.

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