Trump's Sino-Russia Split Bid Likely To Backfire

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In response, a unified stance formed by Western governments to counter China and Russia's challenge has merely pushed the two countries closer together.

Besties forever?

In February 2022, just as Russia was preparing its invasion of Ukraine, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping announced a“friendship without limits” – in a show of unified intent against the West.

China has since become an indispensable partner for Russia, serving as its top trading partner for both imports and exports . In 2024, bilateral trade between China and Russia reached a record high of US$237 billion , and Russia now relies heavily on China as a key buyer of its oil and gas.

This growing economic interdependence gives China considerable leverage over Russia and makes any US attempt to pull Moscow away from Beijing economically unrealistic. That doesn't mean the Russian-Chinese relationship is inviolable; areas of disagreement and divergent policy remain.

Indeed, there are areas that Trump could exploit if he were to succeed in driving a wedge between the two countries. For example, it could serve Russia's interests to support US efforts to contain China and discourage any expansionist tendencies in Beijing – such as through Moscow's strategic ties with India, which China views with some alarm – especially given that there are still disputed territories along the Chinese-Russian border .

ScreenshotPutin knows who his real friends are

Putin isn't naive. He knows that with Trump in office, the deep-seated Western consensus against Russia – including a robust, if leaky, economic sanctions regime – isn't going away anytime soon.

In Trump's first term, the US president likewise appeared to be cozying up to Putin, but there is an argument that he was even tougher on Russia , in terms of sanctions, than the administrations of Barack Obama or Joe Biden.

So, while Putin would likely gladly accept a Trump-brokered peace deal that sacrifices Ukraine's interests in favor of Russia, that doesn't mean he would be rushing to embrace some kind of broader call to unite against China.

Putin will know the extent to which Russia is now reliant economically on China , and subservient to it militarily. In the words of one Russian analyst, Moscow is now a“vassal” or, at best, a junior partner to Beijing.

Transactional weakness

China, for its part, views Trump's peace talks with Russia and Ukraine as a sign of weakness that potentially undermines US hawkishness toward China.

While some members of the US administration are undoubtedly hawkish on China – Secretary of State Marco Rubio views the country as the“most potent and dangerous” threat to American prosperity – Trump himself has been more ambivalent.

He may have slapped new tariffs on China as part of a renewed trade war, but he has also mulled a meeting with President Xi Jinping in an apparent overture. Beijing recognizes Trump's transactional mindset , which prioritizes short-term, tangible benefits over more predictable long-term strategic interests requiring sustained investment.

This changes the calculation over whether the US may be unwilling to bear the high costs of defending Taiwan. Trump, in a deviation from his predecessor, has failed to commit the country to defending Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing.

Rather, Trump had indicated that if the Chinese government were to launch a military campaign to“reunify” Taiwan, he would opt instead for economic measures like tariffs and sanctions. His apparent openness to trade Ukraine territory for peace now has made some in Taiwan concerned over Washington's commitment to long-established international norms.

Insulating the economy

China has taken another key lesson from Russia's experience in Ukraine: The US-led economic sanctions regime has serious limits. Even under sweeping Western sanctions, Russia was able to stay afloat through subterfuge and with support from allies like China and North Korea.

Moreover, China remains far more economically intertwined with the West than Russia, and its relatively dominant global economic position means that it has significant leverage to combat any US-led efforts to isolate the country economically.