Why Is Trump Souring On Putin? Because He Senses Weakness

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Trump's relationship with Ukraine during his first term was, to put it mildly, difficult. His infatuation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin , and Russia's open disdain for Ukraine , caused him to largely ignore the country.

When he did pay attention to Ukraine, it was as part of an effort to acquire information to damage his presumed political rival, former president Joe Biden. This effort resulted in Trump withholding aid from Ukraine unless it acquiesced to his demands.

Trump's position on Ukraine, however, has shifted over time. His antagonistic relationship with President Volodymyr Zelensky has seemingly improved.

While there are still tension points, most notably when Zelensky visited Pennsylvania during the US presidential election campaign, Trump has moderated his comments on his Ukrainian counterpart. Ukraine's purchase of American equipment and ammunition, furthermore, supports Trump's focus on domestic production.

Lastly, Trump has expressed interest in accessing Ukraine's rare earth metals . China currently dominates the rare earth metal market , which puts the US at a disadvantage due to the minerals' importance for future technological innovation. That means Trump has a stake in Ukraine's future.

While these developments don't mean the relationship is perfect, Trump is unlikely to be a burden to Ukraine. This development is in part due to his declining view of Putin.

Trump/Putin relationship

The initial assumption of many analysts when Trump came to power again was that he would immediately favor Putin. The close relationship between the two is well-documented and has been open to considerable speculation as to why Trump curried favor with Putin to such an extent in his first term.

Trump, however, has upped his rhetoric against Russia since assuming the presidency. First, he threatened Putin with additional economic sanctions . Second, he stated that he would like OPEC to increase oil production and, therefore, inhibit Russia's war effort by undermining its primary source of revenue.

Why the pivot? It likely goes to the core foundation of Trump's persona: He likes winners . Regardless of the ultimate outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia and Putin have displayed considerable weakness in execution during the war. The Russian military, once feared globally, has largely proven to be a paper tiger.

While Russia still has several advantages in the war, it is only doing so by leveraging its future. According to Trump, Russia is in “big trouble” in terms of its economic woes. Trump is not alone in this view. Analysts , as well as perhaps Putin himself , recognize the serious challenges facing the Russian economy.

It's not just economically that Russia has leveraged its future. To avoid straining the Russian people, Putin has reached a deal with North Korea, which is providing soldiers for the war against Ukraine.