Hungary's Demographic Exceptionalism

Public spending should be targeted to the factors that determine fertility behavior, Nobel Laureate James Heckman argued in a December lecture at Budapest's Corvinus University, where he received an honorary doctorate. After the great demographic transition from mainly rural traditional society to industrial economies, the needs of women and families have changed radically. The cost of educating children has soared, while women's choices have expanded.

Heckman cited five key drivers of fertility decline, including the costs of higher education and career aspirations delaying or discouraging parenthood, shifting social norms reflecting parenthood as a personal choice rather than a societal expectation, economic challenges such as housing costs and job insecurity, cultural and media influences, and environmental concerns like climate change.

Government spending on early childhood education, Heckman observed, tends to increase both female workforce participation as well as the total fertility rate. The chart below is reproduced from Heckman's presentation.

Lack of housing for young families, Heckman added, depresses family formation and fertility. The highest proportion of young adults living with their parents is found in low-fertility countries, including Korea, Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Poland, while the lowest proportion is found in Scandinavia, where fertility rates have been among the highest in the industrial world.

Hungary's fertility rate by some measures has had the strongest performance in the world. The Scandinavian countries until recently were the poster children for public policy success, with strong public support for families and fertility rates.

The Nordic Statistics Database reports that“the whole region reported sharp declines in fertility rates in 2022. Finland had the lowest fertility rate of all Nordic countries, 1.32 children. This is also the lowest Finnish rate since 1776 when monitoring of fertility rates first started.”

Hungary's fertility rate looks even stronger on a normalized scale (where data are displayed relative to their past range).

Especially impressive is Hungary's marriage rate, now the highest in the OECD. That is a strong predictor of future fertility.

What explains the sudden drop in Scandinavian fertility? The childbearing behavior of immigrants might play a role. Like France, the Scandinavian countries do not report separately births to immigrants and to native-born Swedes, so demographers have to piece together the puzzle from partial data.

A 2024 study concluded,“For most migrants who arrived in Sweden as adults, we found elevated first birth rates shortly after arrival. First birth rates among the second generation were generally close to but lower than the rates observed among native Swedes.”

It's possible that immigrants from countries with high birth rates account in part for the relatively high Scandinavian fertility rates during the 2010s, and that the transition from first-generation to second-generation immigrants explains part of the dropoff in fertility rates during the past several years.

If that is true, Hungary's fertility performance would be all the more exceptional, since Hungary, unlike Sweden, has refused to accept significant numbers of immigrants from Muslim countries.

Sign up for one of our free newsletters

• The Daily Report Start your day right with Asia Times' top stories
• AT Weekly Report A weekly roundup of Asia Times' most-read stories

Hungary's family support may be more effective because it is direct: Couples to have or pledge to have children are eligible for a grant of 10 million Forints, or about US$25,000, equal to five years' minimum wage. Couples with three or more children pay virtually no taxes.

And the subsidies are directed to married couples, which helps explain why Hungary has the highest marriage rate in the industrial world. Married couples are more likely to have many children than single parents. Hungary's approach may succeed because it is not only a fertility policy but also a family policy.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban exhorts his constituents to have children and keep the Hungarian nation alive. But rhetoric alone hasn't proven effective elsewhere. Turkey's President Recep Erdogan has called on his people to have more children for years, but Turkstat, the country's statistics agency, estimates the total fertility rate for 2023 at only 1.53 children per female.

Total fertility includes assumptions about future childbearing, so estimates may vary. But data at the provincial level show core Turkish provinces like Istanbul and Ankara at around 1.2 children per female, while the Kurdish southeast of the country has over 2.5 children per female.

Demographers might pay more attention to Hungary's exceptional success. For East Asian countries with dangerously low fertility rates, Hungary might offer some important insights.

Follow David P Goldman on X at @davidpgoldman

Sign up here to comment on Asia Times stories Or Sign in to an existing accoun

Thank you for registering!

An account was already registered with this email. Please check your inbox for an authentication link.

• Click to share on X (Opens in new window)
• Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
• Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
• Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)
• Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)
• Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window)
• Click to print (Opens in new window)