Mozambique's Cycles Of Violence Won't End Until Frelimo's Grip On Power Is Broken

(MENAFN- The Conversation) Mozambique's Political history has been marred by violence, disputed elections and authoritarian control. The pattern continues. As the 2024 elections have shown, Mozambique remains trapped in a cycle of violence and instability. Mass protests due to widespread allegations of electoral fraud and Police violence led to the deaths of dozens of people and widescale destruction.

My research on peace and security in east and southern Africa has focused on Mozambique's post-independence political history. Based on my work, I argue that Mozambique is at an impasse. It is unable to fully embrace authoritarianism – or to build a functioning democracy.

One obstacle to full authoritarian rule is social media. It has reduced the state's grip on what information is shared, who shares it and what voices are heard. The government has lost the ability to silence critics and dictate what it wants the country to believe.

To appease the international community Mozambique has maintained a democratic posture. But the country hasn't been able to build a strong democratic state. It's prevented by the entrenched power of the political, economic and military elites through Frelimo (Mozambique Liberation Front), the ruling party. Frelimo has dominated since the country's independence in 1975.

The result is cycles of violence and political instability.

These cycles will continue unless Mozambique undertakes sweeping economic and political reforms. These would need to include the decentralisation of power, dismantling the Frelimo-linked patronage networks that control the economy, establishment of an independent judiciary, and fairer political competition.

It is unclear whether the newly inaugurated President Daniel Chapo will dare to ignite these reforms.

For much of its post-independence history, Mozambique was governed by an authoritarian regime under the single rule of Frelimo. Frelimo came to power in 1975 after leading the struggle for independence from Portuguese colonial rule.

In the 1990s, the country adopted multiparty democracy and a new constitution. The constitution established universal suffrage and periodic elections for the presidency and legislature. It also guaranteed fundamental rights and freedoms, including the right to life and protection from torture.

But Frelimo maintained its hold on power. The party did this through political repression, manipulation of electoral processes and patronage systems .

The political landscape has changed in the last decade, however. It's more difficult for the state to maintain – or expand – its authoritarian grip.

Authoritarian regimes control opposition and dissent, but the state's capacity to do this is diminishing.

Social media and digital communication tools have made it difficult to suppress ideas. Historically the government relied on state-controlled media to control the narrative and censor opposing views.

Smartphones and social media platforms have revolutionised the way information circulates. For instance, news about election irregularities, corruption and violence spreads fast. It often outpaces state censorship.

The ongoing protests after the 2024 elections are a testament to this. While the government has deployed forces to quell dissent, the scale of the protests and the speed at which they spread demonstrate the power of social media. Mozambicans have a platform to build alternative narratives, mobilise and resist.

Another factor constraining the state has been the need to retain international support. This means maintaining the outward appearance of a democratic system. Mozambique's economy is highly dependent on external assistance , particularly from western countries and international financial institutions.

Government officials are aware that they could lose foreign aid and investment if the democratic process is abandoned. This would deepen the country's economic crisis and Frelimo's challenges.

The withdrawal of aid in 2016 following the hidden debt scandal is evidence of donors' leverage over Mozambique. Three Mozambican state-owned companies took loans from western donors for national projects that never materialised. As a result of aid suspension, Mozambique was forced to arrest prominent individuals. They included the former head of the secret services and the son of former president Armando Guebuza.

Frelimo's widespread control has made it resistant to meaningful political change. A genuine democracy would require dismantling these entrenched structures of power.

Frelimo has protected the political and economic elites who benefit from its dominance. The party has kept its grip on power through a combination of patronage networks, corruption and control over key sectors of the economy. These elites include business people, military leaders and government officials. All are deeply invested in maintaining the status quo.

A genuine democracy, in which opposition parties could freely compete and challenge Frelimo's monopoly on power, would threaten their interests.

The party has shown time and again that it is willing to manipulate the electoral process , use violence and stifle opposition to maintain its hold on power.

Elections are held regularly. Seven general elections have been held since the inception of multiparty democracy constitution. But they often lack transparency and fairness.

Reforms are needed to break up patronage networks and redistribute power and resources. Frelimo's leadership has shown little interest in doing this. It would jeopardise their control over state resources and the wealth they've accumulated over decades.

Mozambique's political economy further complicates the prospects for democracy. Frelimo-linked elites dominate key sectors, such as natural gas, mining and agriculture, and benefit from favourable policies, state contracts and access to state-owned enterprises.

These economic interests are deeply intertwined with the party's political power. It's unlikely, therefore, that the elite will willingly relinquish control.

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