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Bulls failed again to push the EUR/USD price higher in the last trading of 2024 as it tried to rebound towards the resistance level of 1.0458. With no strength factors, the EUR/USD price returned in its broader downward path, settling down around the support level of 1.0372, near its lowest in two years. Furthermore, the recent gains of the euro came with temporary momentum after the announcement of stronger-than-expected Spanish inflation figures. But why Spain?
According to economists, the inflation process is moving faster in Spain compared to other Eurozone countries. Therefore, this data will confirm the assessment of a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council who confirmed that the next interest rate cut by the ECB may take longer after the recent rise in inflation Dollar losses may continue in 2025
Forecasts from forex market analysts indicate that the performance of the EUR/USD pair during January 2025 will continue the current downward trend. Experts believe that January is historically negative for the performance of the euro against the US dollar. In addition, the US dollar finds strength factors at the same time, which ensures stronger downward breakouts for the euro dollar in the coming days.
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The recent performance confirms the strength of our technical view of the Euro that it will remain under downward pressure and any attempts to rebound upwards may be temporaryUS Stock Markets May Close for an Exceptional Event
The US stock markets have been officially announced to close on January 9, 2025, in celebration of a National Day of Mourning for former US President Jimmy Carter. In this regard, the companies listed on the market said that the New York Stock Exchange and the US stock exchanges of Nasdaq and CBOE Global Markets will be closed. For its part, CME Group, the operator of stock markets and interest rates in the United States, has not yet commented on its plans. Meanwhile, the US bond market will close at 2pm New York time, as recommended by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. Generally, the closures are part of a long-standing US tradition where financial institutions cease operations after the death of a US president/USD Analysis Today:
The broader trend of the EUR/USD pair remains downward. Clearly, the chances of the EUR/USD moving towards parity are strong if the factors of euro weakness persist. Meanwhile, the US dollar price remains supported by Trump's trade and the demand for it as a safe haven. Technically, the gains made by the EUR/USD pair raised the exchange rate above its nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), which represents the first truly positive technical development in some time. If the EUR/USD pair closes above this indicator - which is currently at 1.0432 - further gains could take it into the first week of January 2025. However, this will not be until next Friday when the first real test of important economic data for 2025 comes in the form of the first US non-farm payrolls report for the year.
EURUSD Chart by TradingView
The broader expectation is that the report will show continued strength in the US labour market, justifying the Federal Reserve's decision to pause US interest rate hikes. However, the biggest surprise would be a weaker-than-expected US jobs number, which could lead to a decline in the US dollar. Moreover, given all the survey evidence we see, this is unlikely, and the US dollar's superiority could extend.
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